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同程藝龍(00780.HK):線上流量多元化+線下渠道擴張,3Q復甦強勁,維持“買入”評級,目標價16.5 港元
格隆匯 12-01 10:15

機構:興業證券

評級:買入

目標價:16.5 港元

投資要點

20Q3業績復甦勢頭強勁,經調整淨利恢復近9成:公司20Q3收入為19.1億,同比-7.2%,較Q2-24.6%的跌幅進一步收窄。經調整淨利潤達3.72億元,同比-11.2%,較Q2-43.2%的跌幅顯著收窄。毛利率保持在72.04%的高位。期內公司加大了銷售力度,但研發及管理費用控制得當,期間費用率環比-2.5pct,經調整Non-GAAP費用率達56.2%,環比-2.8pct。

在線住宿:收入同比-1.3%,遠超預期。期內公司住宿收入同比-1.3%,跌幅相比20Q2的-30.6%顯著收窄,遠勝我們-12.8%的預期。該亮眼表現得益於線下獲客渠道及交叉銷售的發力。交通:收入同比下降7.4%,較20Q2-22.5%的跌幅顯著收窄。其中,機票票量恢復仍領先地面交通。經營數據:MAU+5.0%創新高,MPU同比持平。線下渠道期內貢獻了11%的MPU,引流能力持續增強。GMV為397億元,同比減少16.6%,環比大增77.2%。

繼續滲透低線市場,多渠道智慧發展。1、下沉:公司86.1%的註冊用户來自非一線城市,67.2%的新增微信付費用户來自三線及以下城市,下沉戰略具成效:期內低線城市間夜量同比增長近3成。2、豐富渠道:以騰訊旗下流量平台為主,同時滲透快應用程序和短視頻平台等線上流量來源;另外,與酒店、汽車運營商和旅遊景點合作吸引線下用户。3、積極轉型升級ITA:持續優化“慧行系統”,推廣汽車票務數字化以及提高旅遊景點的線上滲透率等。

Q4展望:預計收入-5%-0%。住宿:預計收入錄得中單位數增長,預計Q4國內間夜量可錄得兩成的增長,ADR降幅收窄至-15%左右。交通:預計收入降幅收窄至中單位數。其他收入:商旅、PMS及廣告收入的貢獻或推動公司Q4其他業務板塊錄得高單位數增長。

投資建議:公司定位清晰,其主攻國內低線市場、發展地面交通及票機等策略區別於同業競爭者,可有效避免惡行競爭。公司在綁定上下游資源的同時不斷拓展渠道,引流及變現效果顯著。我們微調公司2020/2021/2022年收入至60/88/104億元,經調整淨利潤為9.7/17.6/20.9億元。維持目標價16.5港元,對應2020-2022年PE為30/16.6/14倍,維持“買入”評級。

風險提示:1)行業政策風險;2)自然災害、政治等突發事件風險;3)行業競爭激烈,標品進入門檻較低;4)公司供應商集中度高;5)流動性較低。

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