同程藝龍(00780.HK)：線上流量多元化+線下渠道擴張，3Q復甦強勁，維持“買入”評級，目標價16.5 港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：16.5 港元
投資要點
20Q3業績復甦勢頭強勁，經調整淨利恢復近9成：公司20Q3收入為19.1億，同比-7.2%，較Q2-24.6%的跌幅進一步收窄。經調整淨利潤達3.72億元，同比-11.2%，較Q2-43.2%的跌幅顯著收窄。毛利率保持在72.04%的高位。期內公司加大了銷售力度，但研發及管理費用控制得當，期間費用率環比-2.5pct,經調整Non-GAAP費用率達56.2%，環比-2.8pct。
在線住宿：收入同比-1.3%，遠超預期。期內公司住宿收入同比-1.3%，跌幅相比20Q2的-30.6%顯著收窄，遠勝我們-12.8%的預期。該亮眼表現得益於線下獲客渠道及交叉銷售的發力。交通：收入同比下降7.4%，較20Q2-22.5%的跌幅顯著收窄。其中，機票票量恢復仍領先地面交通。經營數據：MAU+5.0%創新高，MPU同比持平。線下渠道期內貢獻了11%的MPU，引流能力持續增強。GMV為397億元，同比減少16.6%，環比大增77.2%。
繼續滲透低線市場，多渠道智慧發展。1、下沉：公司86.1%的註冊用户來自非一線城市，67.2%的新增微信付費用户來自三線及以下城市，下沉戰略具成效：期內低線城市間夜量同比增長近3成。2、豐富渠道：以騰訊旗下流量平台為主，同時滲透快應用程序和短視頻平台等線上流量來源；另外，與酒店、汽車運營商和旅遊景點合作吸引線下用户。3、積極轉型升級ITA：持續優化“慧行系統”，推廣汽車票務數字化以及提高旅遊景點的線上滲透率等。
Q4展望：預計收入-5%-0%。住宿：預計收入錄得中單位數增長，預計Q4國內間夜量可錄得兩成的增長，ADR降幅收窄至-15%左右。交通：預計收入降幅收窄至中單位數。其他收入：商旅、PMS及廣告收入的貢獻或推動公司Q4其他業務板塊錄得高單位數增長。
投資建議：公司定位清晰，其主攻國內低線市場、發展地面交通及票機等策略區別於同業競爭者，可有效避免惡行競爭。公司在綁定上下游資源的同時不斷拓展渠道，引流及變現效果顯著。我們微調公司2020/2021/2022年收入至60/88/104億元，經調整淨利潤為9.7/17.6/20.9億元。維持目標價16.5港元，對應2020-2022年PE為30/16.6/14倍，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：1）行業政策風險；2）自然災害、政治等突發事件風險；3）行業競爭激烈，標品進入門檻較低；4）公司供應商集中度高；5）流動性較低。
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