波司登(03998.HK)：品牌引領全局，升級紅利釋放，維持“買入”評級
機構：國盛證券
評級：買入
羽絨服行業：空間廣闊，多元化發展。1）滲透率提升空間廣闊。據中國產業信息網數據，2016年中國羽絨服滲透率不足 10%，近年有所提升，但相比日本、歐美等（30%-70%）仍有提升空間。2）新勢力湧入助推行業多元發展，“功能性”、“時尚化”特性差異驅動品類分化。國際羽絨服時尚潮流湧入推動行業時尚化趨勢，同時拔高產品價格上限；四季性快消品牌、運動品牌發力冬裝領域，驅動行業多元化煥發生機。
品牌端，以波司登品牌的重塑升級引領全局方向。 公司戰略性削減業務支線，聚焦羽絨服主業及主品牌波司登。1）產品端定位向上提升，高端聯名系列、明星同款烙印時尚屬性，引入童裝、IP聯名、新式羽絨等豐富產品系列。2）渠道端升級優化，線下門店煥新升級+新零售運營提效效果明顯；電商高速增長，FY2017-2020羽絨服業務線上收入以 44%的高 CAGR增長至 22.6億元。3）營銷端全力打造“時尚+專業”的國民羽絨服品牌形象，積極接洽時尚資源、電商資源、公益資源，2020 年登陸倫敦時裝週、贊助珠峯高程測量活動等。
供應鏈端，優質快反+智能物流強化供應鏈優勢。1）訂貨模式精細化，強大供應鏈為優質快反提供保障。首次訂單比例不超過 40%，疫情下調低至30%，後續 70%按照銷售情況滾動下單，以拉式補貨、快速上新等靈活補充。2）引入智慧物流，藉助大數據實現大量+快速+精準的高效配送。公司2020年 10月收購物流園，節省租金成本同時強化供應鏈優勢。
展望未來發展路徑：1）品牌矩陣分工明確並形成協同，波司登定位中高端，品牌勢能+市場需求將繼續帶來提價空間，同時橫向拓展品類以挖掘細分市場；雪中飛、冰潔主打中低端市場，全線覆蓋並鞏固公司護城河。2）渠道層面，我們認為過去線下渠道梳理到位，目前正處於紅利釋放週期；電商積極擁抱新零售高速增長，我們預計長遠來看佔比將提升至約 1/3。3）冷冬疊加去年低基數利好短期終端增速表現。4）長週期多方式股權激勵，深度綁定高管及合作伙伴利益，有望持續助力業務發展。
投資建議：公司是國民羽絨服第一品牌，經前期清庫存減渠道後公司內生改善，隨着品牌轉型、產品力提升、快反模式建立，後續收入及盈利能力有望持續提高。我們認為疫情帶來的衝擊有限且基本表現在 FY19/20，下一財年有 望 迎來 明顯 恢復 。我 們預 計公司 FY20/21~22/23 歸 母 淨 利潤15.0/19.1/23.4億元，對應 FY20/21PE為 22倍，維持“買入”評級
風險提示：疫情影響超預期，宏觀經濟疲軟；冷暖冬影響終端銷售情況；主品牌表現不達預期。
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