小米集團-W(01810.HK):智能手機競爭力增強,互聯網服務短線放緩不影響未來增長,給予“買入”行情,目標價31.5港元
機構:中泰證券
評級:買入
目標價:31.5港元
3Q20業績超預期
公司3Q20收入同比增長34.5%至人民幣721.6億;在海外疫情尚未受控下,境外收入增長逆勢強勁;各業務分部均快速增長,智能手機亮眼,IoT(物聯網)與生活消費產品分部增速回升;毛利率由於分部佔比變化微降至14.1%;經調整淨利潤同比增長18.9%至人民幣41.3億元。
智能手機出貨量逆勢大增,高端市場取得顯著突破
智能手機收入同比大增47.5%,出貨量逆勢增加45.3%,排名升至全球第三,市佔率升至13.5%,於全球主要市場保持強勢增長;受疫情影響較嚴重的印度市場亦有回升;更於中國市場量價齊升,為前五大廠商中出貨量唯一取得正增長的企業,市佔率大幅增至12.7%,反映公司競爭力不斷增強。預期中國智能手機市場有望在5G升級及疫情對經濟影響減小的帶動下復甦,美國對華為的限制將繼續為公司帶來擴大市場份額機遇。受中高端產品佔比提升推動,3Q20智能手機ASP同比提升1.6%,部分高端機型廣受歡迎,雙品牌策略已見成效,預期中高端手機佔比可繼續增加,有助提高智能手機盈利能力及間接提升互聯網服務人均收入。
IoT與生活消費產品增速回升,境外市場空間被逐步打開
儘管海外疫情仍在持續,但IoT與生活消費產品收入增速已大幅回升至16.1%,多個主要品類有良好表現,且境外市場增長強勁,部分產品在境外的收入規模已超中國大陸。公司於消費級IoT市場仍保持領先地位,IoT相關經營數據持續向好。公司持續拓展IoT產品組合,將支持米粉數量增長,增強用户粘性,進一步鞏固於消費級IoT市場的領先地位,為未來增加變現途徑奠定基礎。境外市場取得的良好成績反映公司IoT與生活消費產品正逐步被境外市場認可,巨大的境外IoT市場空間正逐步被打開。
互聯網服務用户規模持續擴大,短期增速放緩不必太過憂慮
互聯網服務收入增速放緩至8.7%,主要由於遊戲業務收入受復工復產後用户使用時長縮短影響而同比略微下降及當前戰略上更注重用户增長而非變現。20年9月MIUI月活躍用户數同比增長26.3%至3.68億,智能電視及小米盒子月活躍用户數同比增長49.9%,境外尤其是歐洲等發達地區用户規模增長較快,預期可帶動境外互聯網人均收入增長。當前互聯網用户主要來自智能手機及互聯網電視銷售,粘性較強,仍處於用户積累階段,因此在用户規模仍快速增長的情況下,短期增速放緩不必太過擔憂。
上調目標價至31.5港元,上調至“買入”評級
上調盈利預測,20-22EEPS分別為0.57/0.71/0.84元人民幣,預期智能手機、互聯網及IoT將分別為短、中、長期提供增長動力,智能手機出貨量高速增長還將助力互聯網服務變現及IoT生態圈不斷擴大,未來發展空間巨大,維持39倍21EPE估值,上調目標價至31.5港元,潛在升幅20.5%,上調至“買入”評級。

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