大和:升中芯國際(0981.HK)目標價至16港元 重申沽售評級
大和發表研究報告指,受惠於地緣政治局勢帶來的需求增長,中芯國際(0981.HK)第三季業績表現強勁,惟預期當需求重新平衡後,其第四季的業務將受壓,雖然將中芯目標價由15.5港元微升至16港元,但重申沽售評級,以反映對近期庫存風險的憂慮、地緣政治威脅及與高資本支出相關的結構性盈利能力。
大和表示,中芯第三季純利為2.89億美元,較該行及市場預期分別高出3.3倍及2.6倍;惟晶圓出貨量則較預期低2%,相信是由於受美國影響,從而拉動主要客户的需求。不過,公司第四季收入指引料按季下降10%至12%,至介乎9.53億至9.75億美元,雖較該行早前預期的中位數仍高出5%,但由於載貨量及平均售價都下降,令第四季毛利率預測僅約16%至18%,低於該行預測的19%,相信是由於28NM及以下製程晶圓的收入貢獻少。
該行將中芯2020至22年每股盈利預測提高10至61%,以反映到更好的業績和運營開支控制,但對中芯結構性盈利能力仍感擔憂;儘管公司今年已將資本開支削減12%至59億美元,惟高資本開支將令利潤率受壓。
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