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中信证券料腾讯(00700.HK)受反垄断政策影响有限 即使微信分享封禁放开负面影响有限
阿思达克 11-12 10:42
中信证券发表报告表示,就内地市监局近日发布《关於平台经济领域的反垄断指南》,料对腾讯(00700.HK)整体影响有限,称指南对於腾讯主要聚焦於是否存在拒绝交易的现象,料对公司旗下微信业务或有影响,但对游戏、广告及金融业务料影响有限。

该行指,据《反垄断指南》条例中对於拒绝交易的认定标准(在平台规则、算法、技术、流量分配等方面设置障碍,使交易相对人难以开展交易),微信此前分别封禁淘宝和抖音等竞争平台分享链接的行为,或可能被监管部门认定为拒绝交易。其他业务中,游戏作为产品单体而非平台,并不适用於《反垄断指南》。

中信证券表示,腾讯广告业务於今年第二季营收达185.5亿人民币,据艾瑞谘询数据,内地今年第二季国内网络广告市场规模可达1,678.9亿人民币,腾讯广告业务未达到市场支配地位,互联网广告领域依然保持市场化价体系;金融与企业服务业务中,目前腾讯在支付、信贷和云业务也均未实现垄断或支配市场。

该行认为,即使微信分享封禁放开後,对微信影响依然有限。从字节跳动公司的策略来看,当前抖音月活跃用户数量已逾7亿,其用户体量及影响力已经能与微信平台抗衡,较难进一步通过微信获取新流量;同时字节跳动更希望将社交关系链沉淀到抖音平台,而不昃进一步通过微信外链扩张。如果微信开放抖音分享封禁,抖音短视频或将提升微信平台内容丰富度,微信作为流量入口料将分流淘宝平台流量,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)接入微信小程序体系,或将带动腾讯交易生态发展。因此,微信分享封禁放开後,料负面影响有限。

该行指,维持对腾讯「买入」评级及目标价650元,指公司基本面保持良好。

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