You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
华侨银行:香港经济有复苏迹象 失业率短期或续升
阿思达克 11-09 16:31
华侨银行经济师谢栋铭及华侨永亨银行经济师李若凡发表报告称,美国大选前夕,蚂蚁集团(06688.HK)暂缓上市的消息令人意外,并成为市场焦点。尽管如此,消息公布後,港元市场反应不大。反而,随着蚂蚁IPO冻结的大额资金(1.3万亿港元)分批退还,港元流动性逐步增加,导致港元现价、远期价格及港元拆息进一步回落。展望未来,在没有短暂因素扰动港元流动性的情况下,该行预计港汇将继续在弱於7.75的水平徘徊,同时港元拆息可能进一步下滑,例如一个月港元拆息跌穿0.2%亦不足为奇。

经济方面,该行继续看到复苏的迹象。首先,香港10月私营部门PMI上升至49.8,创2018年3月以来新高。其次,9月零售销售额的同比跌幅收窄至2019年7月以来最小的12.9%。第三,9月楼价指数录得七个月以来首次升幅,按年上升0.3%。以上数据结合,反映本地疫情缓和、政府放宽防疫措施,以及内地经济稳健复苏,正支持香港经济重拾增长动能。

然而,10月PMI当中,就业指数於9月份微幅扩张後,10月份再度跌至收缩水平。另外,9月零售销售额表现并不及预期,而10月楼市成交量亦有所回落。短期内,失业率可能进一步上升,尤其是在11月保就业计划结束之後。因此,劳动力市场转弱,以及旅游业近乎停滞,这两个因素可能继续拖慢经济复苏的步伐。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account