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《季绩前瞻》券商料港交所(00388.HK)第三季可多赚43% 受惠港股畅旺日均成交增八成
阿思达克 11-06 12:17
港交所(00388.HK)将於下周三(11日)公布今年第三季业绩,受惠於港股季内现货市场成交畅旺,包括更多中概股来港上市、北水南来的资金大升(花旗料北水南来第三季按年大升1.2倍或按季升33%),季内日均成交额达1,400亿元按年升逾八成所带动下,本网综合4间券商预测,港交所今年第三季录得纯利介乎31.16亿元至32.85亿元,较2019年同期22.07亿元,按年增41.2%至48.8%,中位数为31.61亿元,按年升43.2%。

综合4间券商预测,港交所今年第三季收入及其他收益介乎49.74亿元至52.17亿元,较2019年同期39.87亿元,按年增24.8%至30.9%;中位数为51.15亿元,按年升28.3%。综合4间券商预测,港交所今年第三季交易费及交易系统使用费收益介乎18.27亿元至19.5亿元,较2019年同期13.69亿元,按年上升33.5%至42.4%;中位数为19.18亿元,按年升40.1%。。

据港交所公布今年第三季市场概况资料数据,今年第三季总成交金额91.41万亿元,交易日数为65天,即第三季日均成交额约1,406.3亿元,较2019年第三季768.6亿元按年升83%。此外,美银证券近日发表报告表示,指无须高估蚂蚁集团(06688.HK)暂缓H股上市对港股成交额的影响,不认为单一新股或公司可以改变对港交所的前景。

【受惠港股旺 料多赚四成】

花旗料港交所今年第三季纯利录31.57亿元按年升43%(按季增长6%)、料总体收入按年升28%至51.22亿元、估计其上季核心收入(撇除投资收益净额及杂项收益)录43.68亿元按年升43%(按季增23%)、估计来自证券相关收入录11.74亿元按年大升84%、料衍生工具相关收入按年持平至4.62亿元、料来自LME收入按人升5%,并估计港交所第三季每股盈利预测可按年升42%至2.51元,料EBITDA毛利率80%按年升3.8个百分点、料港股第三季日均成交额1,410.63亿元按年升83%(按升24%)、料衍生工具日均成交量按年升20%。。

摩根士丹利上月下旬发表报告,料港交所今年第三季业绩仍强劲,估计其第三季利录316亿元按年升43%(按季升6%),料季内收入按年升28%(按季增7%)至51亿元,估计其中港交所上季交易费及交易系统使用费收入按年升42%(按季升27%)至19.5亿元、料联交所上市费收入4.43亿元按年升12%、估计结算及交收费收入11.97亿元按年升54%(按季升28%)、料存管、托管及代理人服务费收入3.19亿元按年升16%(按季跌18%)、估计市场数据费收入2.43亿元按年升5%(按季增3%)、并估计投资收益按年跌6%至6亿元。

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本网综合4间券商预测,港交所今年第三季录得纯利介乎31.16亿元至32.85亿元,较2019年同期22.07亿元,按年增41.2%至48.8%;中位数为31.61亿元,按年升43.2%。

券商│今年第三季纯利预测(港元)│按年变幅

摩根大通│32.85亿元│+48.8%

摩根士丹利│31.64亿元│+43.4%

花旗│31.57亿元│+43%

麦格理│31.16亿元│+41.2%

按港交所2019年第三季纯利22.07亿元计算

-----------------------------------

综合4间券商预测,港交所今年第三季收入及其他收益介乎49.74亿元至52.17亿元,较2019年同期39.87亿元,按年增24.8%至30.9%;中位数为51.15亿元,按年升28.3%。

券商│今年收入及其他收益预测(港元)│按年变幅

摩根大通│52.17亿元│+30.9%

花旗│51.22亿元│+28.5%

摩根士丹利│51.07亿元│+28.1%

麦格理│49.74亿元│+24.8%

按港交所2019年第三季收入及其他收益39.87亿元计算

-----------------------------------

本网综合4间券商预测,港交所今年第三季交易费及交易系统使用费收益介乎18.27亿元至19.5亿元,较2019年同期13.69亿元,按年上升33.5%至42.4%;中位数为19.18亿元,按年升40.1%。。

券商│投资收益净额及杂项收益(港元)│按年变幅

摩根士丹利│19.5亿元│+42.4%

摩根大通│19.19亿元│+40.2%

花旗│19.16亿元│+40%

麦格理│18.27亿元│+33.5%

按港交所2019年第三季交易费及交易系统使用费收益13.69亿元计算

(ta/w)

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