10月PMI数据点评：建筑维持高景气度，就业形势仍待改善
机构：国联证券
投资要点：
10月官方制造业PMI为51.4%，较上月下降0.1个百分点，总体保持平稳，高于去年同期2.1个百分点，已连续4个月保持在51%以上。
需求端稳定恢复，新出口订单有所回升
供给方面，10月生产PMI为53.9%，较上月下降0.1个百分点，高于去年同期3.1个百分点。分企业类型看，大型企业生产指数较上月回落0.5个百分点至55.2%，而中小型企业生产指数均有所上升，其中中型企业上升较为明显，生产指数上升0.4个百分点至53.2%， 而小型企业生产指数继续上升0.1个百分点至51.7%，小型企业生产PMI已连续两个月维持在荣枯线以上，体现小微企业生产有所回暖。从企业库存来看，产成品库存和原材料库存分别下降3.5和0.5个百分点，产成品库存下降较为明显，或反映国庆小长假期间需求旺盛，库存被动去化较为显著。
需求方面，新订单PMI与上月持平，维持在52.8%，已经连续三个月位于52%以上，反映当前国内需求端恢复稳定。分企业类型看，大型企业新订单维持高景气，较上月上升1.2个百分点至55%,而中小型企业新订单PMI均表现不佳，分别较上月下降1个和1.4个百分点。小型企业新订单PMI跌落至荣枯线以下，为49.7%。外需方面，新出口订单PMI较上月继续回升0.2个百分点至51%。其中小型企业表现抢眼，较上月大幅上涨5.2个百分点至52.8%，回升至荣枯线以上，或与纺织订单大幅回流国内有关。大型和中型企业则分别较上月下降0.5个和0.1个百分点。
就业指数小幅滑落，中小型企业就业形势有待改善
就业方面， 10月从业人员PMI有所滑落， 较上月下降0.3个百分点至49.3%，仍位于在荣枯线以下。不同企业类型之间存在分化，大型和小型企业从业人员PMI有所下降，大型企业环比下降0.4个百分点至50.7%，小型企业下降0.5个百分点至47.6%，而中型企业与上月持平保持在48.1%。中小型企业就业形势仍不乐观，相关就业政策应重点倾斜中小型企业。
双节期间需求拉动明显，建筑业保持高景气
10月非制造业商务活动指数上升明显， 较上月上涨0.3个百分点至56.2%，为今年以来的最高值。分行业来看，服务业回暖态势良好，10月服务业PMI较上月上涨0.3个百分点，实现了三个月的连续增长。分行业来看，在国庆中秋双节带动下，铁路运输、航空运输和餐饮业等商务活动指数均在59%以上。建筑业PMI保持高景气，4月来始终维持在60%左右，10月较上月小幅滑落0.4个百分点至59.8%。
风险提示：宏观经济大幅下行。
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