中航科工(02357.HK):A股子公司第三季度业绩强劲,维持“买入“评级,目标价5.80 港元
机构:国泰君安
评级:买入
目标价:5.80 港元
各 A 股子公司 2020 年第三季度业绩强劲。2020 年第三季度,中航科工各 A 股子公司的总收入同比增 22.9%,展现出公司在军品需求旺盛的带动下强劲的增长势头。此外,各 A股子公司的加权平均毛利率和净利率均有稳固提升。
我们将 2020/ 2021/ 2022 年的每股盈利预测分别上调 9.9%/ 8.6%/ 8.8%。我们主要:1)基于中直股份 2020 年第三季度的强劲表现,上调了整机分部的收入和毛利率假设;2)基于中航电子强于预期的收入增长,上调了零部件分部的收入假设;3)基于中航光电超预期的利润率,上调了零部件分部的毛利率假设;以及 4)基于中直股份和中航电子研发费用的大幅上升,略微上调了对销售及管理费用的假设。
略微下调目标价至 5.80 港元并维持“买入”。中共十九届五中全会公报强调了提升国防能力以及加快国防现代化的重要性。我们认为军机将继续在十四五期间的部队现代化建设中发挥关键作用,向更先进机型的升级换代将提速。我们的目标价对应 20.1 倍/ 17.0 倍/ 15.1倍的 2020-2022 年市盈率和 1.5 倍的 2020 年市净率。

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