民生教育(01569.HK)：擴大線上教育佈局；線下招生穩定增長，維持“買入”評級，目標價2.05港元
機構：中泰證券
評級：買入
收購都學網60%權益
民生教育公佈收購都學網絡60%權益，對應代價為都學網絡2020和2021財年平均核心淨利潤的12倍估值的60%。根據管理層對於淨利潤的預期值，此次收購的代購為人民幣2.5億元（可調整，最高不超過人民幣2.9億）。都學網絡旗下運營都學課堂網和MBACHINA網。都學課堂提供管理類聯考線上培訓輔導服務，包括研究生統一考試、會計類考試、MBA考試等備考培訓，以及出版備考書籍材料等。MBACHINA提供全國各大院校的MBA課程申請、面試培訓、考試題庫，選校諮詢等服務。都學網絡與200多所知名商學院合作，包括清華大學五道口金融學院和長江商學院，等等。MBACHINA是全國工商管理類研究生教育行業中活躍度最高的在線平台，2019年平台新增註冊用户約20萬人，MBACHINA發佈的商學院排名已被行業、高校廣泛認可，成為最具影響力的排名。都學網向民生教育做出未來業績承諾，若未達到業績承諾將向民生做出補償。
充實線上教育產品線補充高階教育板塊
民生近年積極佈局線上學歷/非學歷培訓等教育服務。早期民生教育已託管民世在線以及收購奧鵬教育，在在線教育領域提供學歷教育，職業培訓、IT慕課課程、教師職業培訓等服務。通過這次收購都學網絡，民生教育的在線教育板塊充實了高階MBA教育服務，更加完善和深化了在線教育佈局，形成校園教育+在線教育雙線發展的策略。民生將打通校園教育的資源與在線教育板塊做對接，為學生提供全套教育服務。預期都學網將在今年完成並表。
新預期在校人數增長11%
預期2020/21學年在校生增長11%至9.4萬人，以及平均學費提升3%。預期FY20E/21E收入增長14.1%/13.6%，至人民幣11.5億/13.0億元。由於今年民生將需支付滇池學院的轉設補償費約人民幣2.5億元，FY20E利潤將受到一次性影響。
多重盈利提升因素維持“買入”評級
1）預計2021年滇池學院以及派斯學院將完成轉設，以及從2021學年開始將無需向雲南大學支付管理費；2）預計南昌今年並表，有助於提升FY21E收入及利潤；3）線上教育板塊FY21E開始發力。我們調低FY20E淨利潤至人民幣2.1億，以反映一次性開支；並維持FY21E淨利潤人民幣5.1億不變。維持15倍前瞻市盈率估值不變，目標價港元2.05。
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