甘肅銀行(02139.HK):盈利預計將恢復,給予“買入“評級,目標價1.52港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:買入
目標價:1.52港元
公司 2020 年上半年股東淨利潤同比下滑 28.7%至 366.2 百萬元人民幣。2020 年上半年,淨息差同比收縮 32 個基點至 1.78%。主要由於新冠疫情及 LPR 下滑的影響,淨利息收入 達 2,487.8 百萬元人民幣,同比下滑 13.4%。非利息收入同比下降 23.4%至 755.5 百萬元人民幣,其中,淨手續費佣金收入同比增長 64.6%。減值損失同比下降 17.5%至 1,889.8百萬元人民幣。截至 2020 年上半年末,公司不良貸款率為 2.32%,比 2019 年末下滑 0.13個百分點。不良貸款撥備覆蓋率達 131.20%,比 2019 年末下滑 4.67 個百分點。
公司擬增發新股:(1)非公開發行不超過 37.5 億股內資股;(2)非公開發行不超過 12.5 億股H 股。若成功實現,公司股本將在現有 100.7 億股本的基礎上,擴大約 50.0%,預計將大幅增強公司的資本基礎。
我們預計甘肅省經濟將繼續以相對較快的速度發展,這將有助於公司的發展。在我們預測期內,我們預計公司盈利將大幅恢復。我們預計 2020/2021/2022 年的每股盈利分別為0.072 元人民幣、0.097 元人民幣和 0.183 元人民幣,分別同比上漲 43.1%、34.4%和 87.9%。我們首次給予公司 1.52 港元的目標價,對應 18.5 倍 2020 年市盈率、13.8 倍 2021 年市盈率和 7.3 倍 2022 年市盈率,0.64 倍 2020 年市淨率、0.61 倍 2021 年市淨率和 0.58 倍2022 年市淨率。同時,我們首次給予公司“買入”投資評級。

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