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通信行业周报:通信“十四五“规划启动,三季报即将披露,维持“推荐”评级
格隆汇 10-12 14:30

机构:兴业证券

评级:推荐

投资要点

【板块走势】

上周(10.5-10.11)申万通信板块上涨 2.48%,其中通信设备制造上涨 2.51%,增值服务上涨 2.59%,电信运营上涨 1.70%,同期沪深 300指数上涨 2.04%,中小板指数上涨 3.05%,创业板指数上涨 3.81%。

【周观投资】

本周重点推荐:亿联网络、移远通信、新易盛、中际旭创、天孚通信、信维通信、数据港

【5G设备】近期工信部、三大运营商及各地方通信管理局纷纷启动信息通信业“十四五”发展规划编制工作。我们预计信息通信“十四五”规划最快于 2021 年底出台,推动 5G 大规模商用部署、加快工业互联网数据中心建设预计将是通信“十四五”规划的重点。目前,我国已建成 5G基站超 60万个,提前完成全年 5G建设目标。在 5G三期招标方案尚未落地前,下半年设备商出货或主要为运营商 Q4额外建设所需,较上半年明显放缓。产业链相关厂商下半年 5G相关收入或将短期季度性承压,后续,考虑 Q4运营商额外建设、2021年 5G三期招标、700M 增量市场及海外市场恢复,5G 主设备产业链景气有望显著回升。节后进入三季报密集批露期,建议重点布局三季报超预期个股,积极关注年底 5G三期招标进展。

我们对华为、中兴等 5G主设备产业链抱有信心,持续看好5G主设备龙头中兴通讯、烽火通信,华为部分业务被动收缩,看好电力载波龙头东软载波,华为“南泥湾”、“塔山计划”相继启动,建议重点关注华为产业链高频覆铜板标的华正新材,LCP 天线厂商信维通信。

【5G应用】中期来看,从 5G设备到应用仍将是下一阶段通信投资主线。疫情加速云视频逐步走向普及,亿联网络 SIP、VCS、云办公终端三驾马车持续发力,逐步进入恢复通道,未来增长可期;物联网模组作为上游芯片和下游行业的中间环节,是 5G商用及推动行业应用创新的关键,重点推荐全球模组冠军移远通信,关注收购 Sierra 布局车联网赛道广和通和 WiFi MCU芯片龙头乐鑫科技。5G R16冻结,5G低时延 uRLLC 能力增强,支持时间敏感网络,持续看好商用车联网龙头鸿泉物联、锐明技术,据产业链调研了解,5G铁路专网频段有望于下半年确定,关注相关指挥调度细分领域龙头佳讯飞鸿。北斗 3 号正式开通,建议关注北斗板块,持续看好军用市场龙头海格通信。关注龙头 CSP 厂商梦网集团。

【光模块】从产业链跟踪来看,国内设备商 5G光模块的采购尚未开启,仍需等待时间的确定;三季度经营情况预计有所分化,电信 100G和数通 100G及以上产品收入占比高的厂商有望继续实现环比增长;我们深度跟踪海外 400G光模块需求,预计在亚马逊放量驱动下,下半年出货量有望逐季环比增长,全年出货量接近 80 万只,100G 需求仍强劲;全球光模块市场分工趋势明确,海外厂商在高端市场逐渐被国内厂商赶超,龙头和二线厂商共享增长盛宴;重点推荐新易盛、中际旭创、天孚通信、光迅科技、剑桥科技,建议重点关注仕佳光子、博创科技、太辰光、华西股份和华工科技。

【IDC】近期,大客户为字节跳动的 IDC 服务商秦淮数据在美股上市,IDC 优质资继续获得投资者认可;部分核心区域逐渐收紧数据中心建设节奏,缓解市场对新基建政策驱动下IDC 供需反转担忧。第三方 IDC 服务商的快速响应、三方接入等优势显著,具备核心区域数据中心扩张能力的厂商有望表现出更好的成长性;重点推荐光环新网、数据港、奥飞数据,及 IDC制冷龙头英维克。重点关注基本面反转的科华恒盛和鹏博士。

【交换机】400G 产业链已经成熟,华为发布最新一代 400G 交换机,有望加速部署,工信部进一步强调适度超前建设 5G,WIFI6 标准落地加速产业链成熟,交换路由的数据中心、运营商和行业客户市场迎来中期确定性增长机遇。重点推荐紫光股份和星网锐捷。

风险提示:疫情反复影响;中美摩擦扰动风险;5G应用落地不及预期。

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