波司登(03998.HK)：進入羽絨服銷售季，公司下半財年業績值得期待，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
公司近年經營韌性顯著增強，暖冬年份業績穩健增長，非暖冬年份業績大幅增長。得益於時尚度不斷提升和持續推進優質快反，在暖冬的2016 和 2019 年，公司對應 2016/17、2019/20 財年的下半年品牌羽絨服業務的收入增速分別為 13.11%、18.60%，而在非暖冬的 2017 和2018 年，公司對應 2017/18、2018/19 財年的下半年品牌羽絨服業務的收入分別增長 33.19%和 41.21%。整體呈現出暖冬年份公司業績穩健增長，非暖冬年份公司業績大幅增長。考慮到公司今年進一步降低了訂貨會投產期貨的比例，我們預計公司 2020/2021 下半財年存貨風險有望進一步降低，業績增長的彈性將進一步增加。
進入羽絨服銷售季，公司下半財年業績值得期待。除了公司近年經營韌性顯著增強外，首先，公司秋冬新品近期陸續上市，銷售表現好，同時一系列營銷活動陸續推出，包括再度攜手楊冪作為設計師系列代言人等，有望引爆品牌助力銷售。其次，雖然受疫情影響，公司上一財年期末庫存有所增加，但我們預計通過反季銷售，公司庫存去化符合預期。最後，根據中國氣象台預報，今年國慶假日期間全國氣温總體較常年同期偏低 1～3℃，加之近日受冷空氣影響，全國大部分地區明顯降温，我們預計今年羽絨服銷售旺季有望提前，公司作為國內羽絨服龍頭，旗下主品牌波司登連續 25 年（1995-2019 年）全國銷量遙遙領先，羽絨服銷售季需求值得看好。
20/21-22/23 財年預計EPS 為人民幣 0.13 元/股、0.17 元/股、0.20 元 /股。現價對應 20/21 財年市盈率僅 18 倍，參考可比公司平均估值，給予公司 20/21 財年 25 倍市盈率，對應合理價值 3.70 港元/股，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：匯率波動風險；商譽減值風險；經營風險。
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