第一太平戴維斯：本港第三季末零售市場有復甦跡象 商場租金保持穩定
第一太平戴維斯一份報告指，第三波疫情重創原本緩慢復甦的本港零售市場。然而，儘管確診案例數量有所上升，但7月和8月零售銷售降速趨緩。由於酒吧、食肆等受限聚令制約客流及營業時間，餐飲業季內受到嚴重衝擊。
該行稱，第三季度末，零售租賃市場亦出現觸底反彈跡象，一些非主流零售商開展促銷活動。本地餐飲連鎖店正於將軍澳等大型民生區拓展業務；生活方式品牌則關注中環等本地需求旺盛的地區；而日用雜貨類零售商則於核心及非核心區皆尋求擴張。
零售租金於第三季出現穩定跡象，不過依然錄得跌幅。其中優質街舖租金於按季跌2%，而商場租金(基本租金)基本保持穩定。業主更傾向與現有租戶續約，並願意提供多達30%租金優惠，而一年期租約亦日趨普遍。就位置來看，側重於遊客生意的街舖及商場不可避免地看到更高的空置率，民生區則相對穩定。
該行追蹤40個商場的貿易及租戶組合數據顯示，全港商場總體空置率已由2018年9月的2%(社會動盪及疫情之前)增長至2020年9月的7%。由於一些主力租戶(通常是中檔時裝品牌和傳統中餐廳)撤租，導致新界區商場空置率最高，達12%。該行亦發現，在海港城、時代廣場及新城市廣場等受內地遊客青睞的商場，空置率較高，近幾個月已攀升至10%以上。
以上現象意味著：現階段業主及其租戶暫時將依賴本地客，而零售業將進一步從奢侈品和普通零售轉向中端市場和家品類消費。大陸旅客當天返回後，預計通關之後，內地當日訪港旅客將迅速提振新界及九龍零售業，但時間尚不確定。
奢侈品牌已經將重點轉移到大灣區或內地城市(廣州、深圳以及海南島等)，並將繼續將重點轉移至中國南部及較遠離香港的地方。市場基本面發生結構性轉變，將是不可避免。不少人認為零售業的新常態將比2018年的水平低30%至40%。該行將繼續關注經濟形勢，因為更廣泛的商業困境和失業率上升可能破壞本地消費，導致零售市場復甦推遲至明年。
該行香港研究及顧問諮詢部主管盛世民稱，雖然本港零售業很難短期交出亮麗成績，但9月下旬的某些早期跡象表明市場正在好轉，進入一個新常態。另該行香港董事總經理及租賃部主管黎達志指，進入疫情爆發的第九個月，該行看到了香港零售市場的諸多變化，譬如更加注重網購，採用更加靈活的租賃條款，以及更加看重生活方式，講究物有所值。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
