東軟教育(09616.HK)：IT好風頻借力，程序員高教第一股揚帆起航，給予“買入”評級，目標價7.92港元
機構：浙商證券
評級：買入
目標價：7.92港元
超預期因素：產教融合協同打造優質IT教育口碑，教育資源輸出放量有望超預期。市場認為IT教育由於技術更新迭代快，業績增長持續性存在不確定性，但我們認為：1）公司憑藉東軟集團在IT領域豐富的產業資源，課程、師資緊跟前沿技術更迭，旗下運營三所民辦高校享有良好的產教融合協同效應，預計隨着校區擴建進程的推進，2020-2022年在校生人數CAGR約9.2%，平均學費同比提升13%/8%/5%，量價齊升改善盈利能力；2）教育資源業務憑藉東軟IT強力的品牌背書，通過輕資產模式共建專業和產業學院，預計2020年教育資源增長翻倍，未來3-5年維持40-50%的高增速，快速放量有望成為新的業務增長引擎。
超預期路徑：高教業務量價齊升增長穩健，輕資產+併購開拓增長新路徑。憑藉東軟特有的IT產業背景，公司：1）以全日制學歷高等教育為核心業務，採取與行業需求緊密結合的教育模式，依託良好辦學質量量價齊升，增厚業績；2）以繼續教育服務為擴展，擴大覆蓋招生範圍，為更廣泛人羣提供終身教育服務；3）以教育資源與數字工場、外延併購為增長新引擎，通過教育資源輕資產模式快速向外輸出，放量可期。預計2020-2022年公司收入同增19.22%/23.67%/17.50%至11.42/14.13/16.60億元，歸母淨利潤同增35.14%/36.38%/23.21%至1.88/2.57/3.16億元。
催化劑：數字資源與數字工場業務放量提速，校區擴建推進，外延併購落地
盈利預測及估值：公司現有高教業務板塊增長穩健，預計隨着校區持續擴容，招生學費量價齊升，將顯著提升持續盈利能力。預計2020-2022年公司EPS為0.33、0.44、0.54港元/股，結合可比公司估值，給予公司21年18倍市盈率，給予目標價7.92港元，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
風險提示：VIE架構政策風險、校區擴建推進不及預期、數字資源與數字工場業務推進不及預期。
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