植耀辉: 港股宜先静观其变 「中国芯」目标仍遥远
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，执笔之时亦是美国首场总统候选人辩论之日。「牌面」上看现任总统特朗普应占上风，始终论口才特朗普应可被看高一线；不过现时距离选举仍有一个月时间，最终鹿死谁手仍是未知之数；只是对投资市场则未必是一件好事。港股在中美角力之下，加上北水将暂定一段时间，恐怕走势仍难乐观。所以现阶段还是不适宜太进取，维持静观其变策略会较好。
另外，近日围绕中美之间的话仍多不胜数，最新便有美国拟对中芯(00981.HK)实施出口管制。消息其实并不意外，皆因美国今年对华为采取「封杀」措施时，外界已预计中芯亦会受到打击，不过同时又再带出另一个值得深究话题，究竟内地何时才能做到真正芯片国产化?笔者过去数天花了不少时间去研究相关产业，奈何实在过於复杂，故笔者尝试简单地作出解释。
芯片制造涉及多个专业范畴，不过基本上每一个环节只得个别一两间企业「跑出」，例如台湾台积电(TSM.US)主导芯片代工市场，而生产所须之必要设备光刻机则有荷兰ASML公司；但光刻机内之重要零部件，又会由其他国家供应(例如日本Jtekt之金刚石及德国蔡司镜片)。所以要建立全「自家制」之完整产业链，难度可以说是十分之高。
当中，又以光刻机最受关注。皆因光刻工艺是晶片制造过程中占用时间最多的步骤，约占晶片制造40%至50%。同时光刻机也是目前晶圆制造产线中成本最高的半导体设备，约占晶圆生产线设备总成本之四分之一。事实上，目前一部最先进采用EUV技术之光刻机在2018年单台平均售价便高达1.04亿欧元。
而在目前的光刻机市场，ASML、佳能(Canon)以及尼康(Nikon)三间企业基本上是垄断整个市场，ASML在高端市场上又一家独大，且是全球唯一可以生产EUV光刻机之供应商。至於中国，目前只得上海微电子能自行生产光刻机，明年料可生产28nm之光刻机，但技术上跟ASML相比(5nm)仍有颇远距离。
为了追赶与海外之差距，内地不论官方及民间，未来亦肯定会加大相关研发。早前发改委及科技部等四部门便联合发文，聚焦重点产业投资领域，要求「加快基础材料、关键芯片、高端元器件、新型显示器件、关键软体等核心技术攻关」；早前《彭博通讯社》亦指北京将在2025年之前投资9.5万亿人民币研制芯片。此外，各地亦掀起投资半导体芯片热潮，截至9月上旬，全中国已有近14万个设计芯片的公司注册成立。人多固然好办事，但如不能针对现时状况而「人做我又做」，笔者担心恐怕最终仍只会徒劳无功。事实上，现时已有不少大型项目「烂尾」，当中便包括湖北武汉弘芯之千亿级半导体项目。而且正如上文提到，芯片制造涉及多个专业范畴，所以最好还是按部就班，研究如何在每一个细节上做好才是最重要。
(笔者为证监会持牌人，并未持有相关股份)~
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