晨星:維持中芯國際(0981.HK)目標價23港元 長遠料股價有40%的下行風險
中國半導體業龍頭中芯國際(0981.HK),傳成為美國最新的制裁對象,消息指美國商務部工業與安全局將針對中芯及其子公司和合資公司出口的某些產品實施管制,理由是中芯國際與中國軍方關係密切。
晨星發表報告指,若美國落實執行該出口禁令,將對中芯國際的營運帶來莫大影響,因中芯的絕大部分設備均來自美國或與之有關聯的公司,儘管已有部分中國製造的設備替代品,但規格一般較美國設備落後兩至三代。晨星維持中芯國際H股的目標價為23港元,但擔心禁令對公司中長期影響或會非常嚴重,股價有40%的下行風險。
晨星還預期,中國半導體設備在未來10年內都不大可能完全本地化,即使內地推出更多具支持半導體產業發展的政策,也可能會刺激美國的不滿情緒。
晨星認為更多中國公司的供應鏈將面臨被切斷的風險,包括華潤微(688396.SH)、華虹半導體(1347.HK)、北方華創(002371.SZ)、中微半導體、長電科技(600584.SH)、大唐電信(600194.SH)及兆易創新(603986.SH)。
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