恆安國際(01044.HK)：盈利能力改善且具備防禦性的投資標的，維持“買入“評級，目標價70.90 港元
機構：國泰君安
評級：買入
目標價：70.90 港元
衞生巾銷售錄得上升。恆安 2020 年上半年的收入同比增加 1.4%至人民幣 109.28 億元。衞生巾銷售同比上升 4.8%至人民幣 32.23 億元，由於其傳統渠道收入自二季度以來迅速回升。而紙巾銷售則同比下滑 2.0%至人民幣 53.49 億元。受益於較低的木漿價格，紙巾業務毛利水平同比大幅上揚 10.0 個百分點。恆安的綜合毛利率同比改善 6.8 個百分點至 44.1%，毛利率的顯著提高完全抵消了費用率的增加。2020 年上半年，公司股東淨利同比增長 20.3%至人民幣22.60 億元。
產品結構升級正在夯實恆安作為中國日用消費品行業龍頭的地位。為順應行業消費升級趨勢，恆安重視並加大高端產品在其產品組合中的構成。管理層預計電商渠道銷售將在 2020 年下半年重啟增長。恆安業已與阿里巴巴展開合作，旨在釋放公司基於 B2C 業務的巨大潛力。我們亦相信恆安阿米巴模式的運行效率正在得到優化。
低木漿成本仍是紙巾業務毛利的壓艙石。由於木漿價格在 2020 年上半年保持歷史低位，恆安藉機儲備低價木漿以鎖定原材料成本。但我們關注到木漿價格或在 2020 年下半年止跌企穩。因木漿價格紅利將逐步消失，我們對 2021 年下半年至 2022 年毛利率的提升空間維持謹慎。
我們維持“買入”投資評級並上調目標價至 70.90 港元。恆安是一個很好的防禦性投資標的，當前估值吸引。我們新的目標價為 70.90 港元，分別對應 15.2 倍/ 14.7 倍/ 14.0 倍的 2020-2022年市盈率和 3.7 倍的 2020 年市淨率。
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