《大行報告》摩通:市場對恆大(03333.HK)債務傳聞反應過度 基本情境下料限期可延長
就近日內地網上流傳一份文件,指恆大(03333.HK)致函廣東省政府,希望協助恆大地產推進回歸A股上市,中國恆大昨晚發嚴正聲明指,近日網上流傳有關恆大地產重組情況的謠言,相關文件和截圖憑空捏造、純屬誹謗。摩根大通昨晚發表中國恆大的債券研究報告,認為市場對上述傳聞反應屬過度,該行認為若內地政府迫使房產開發商進行去槓桿化以降低系統性風險,但同時阻止內房商籌集資本,此令人費解,並指重組以籌集資本是實現去槓桿化的更快方法。
摩通認認為,恆大若致函廣東省政府前,應該事前已進行了充分溝通,並會獲得地方政府提供的任何協助。就相關債務戰略投資者,據《彭博通訊社》早前報道如果恆大地產未能在2021年1月的最後期限之前獲得上市,蘇寧將行使權利以取回200億元人民幣的投資,該行指由於家電零售商蘇寧正努力償還自己的債務,若發生此情況,不會感到驚訝。另一個重要的戰略投資者山東高速是中國華東地區主要國有企業,鑑於目前彼此關係和利潤分配,該行認為山東高速和其他投資者仍可延長債務期限。
據與投資者達成的條款,該行注意到蘇寧並沒有硬性條款可以將其股份以現金形式出售。恆大根據經修訂協議的回購義務,包括第一是以成本回購股權;第二是將恆大地產股份轉讓給相關投資者。基本情況預測下,該行估計恆大將與相關投資者達成共同協議延期債務期限。
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