【安信國際】中糧肉食(1610.HK):今年利潤持續釋放,成本有望進一步下降
作者:曹瑩
來源:安信國際
中糧肉食(1610.HK)上半年收入91.7億人民幣,同比增長108%,生物資產公允價值調整前淨利潤為13.8億,去年同期為-2.7億,增加16.6億,實現扭虧。其中調整後的淨利潤為20.5億,去年同期為0.93億。我們預計下半年豬價將逐步下行,拐點可能出現在四季度,但整體價格仍將大幅高於非瘟疫情前的水平,這將有利於公司利潤在今年持續釋放。隨着出欄量的增加,公司成本將進一步下滑,有助於明年豬價下行期維持利潤。
主要內容
出欄數量環比提升,豬價可能迎來拐點。
上半年生豬出欄量為80.1萬頭,同比減少44.8%,其中一季度出欄30.8萬頭,二季度49.3萬頭,環比有明顯提升。預計今年全年出欄量將達到200萬頭。育肥豬出欄體重從去年同期的105公斤上升到121公斤。從銷售均價來看,大豬的售價仍維持在相對較高的水平,一季度平均售價35.04元/公斤,二季度30.62元/公斤,疫情影響消費需求,導致2月中旬至5月中旬豬價出現了持續的下跌,但此後隨着需求的復甦和旺季來臨豬價又重新回到歷史高位。我們認為下半年豬價的拐點可能出現在四季度,豬價將逐步下行,但平均價格仍高於非瘟疫情前的水平。
持續擴張產能,養殖成本有望下降。
截止今年6月,能繁母豬和後備種豬存欄達到24.1萬頭,預計到年底達到25.6萬頭,種豬數量穩步回升。19年底產能已達到502萬頭,未來產能將持續擴張,希望三年內產能達到800萬頭,每年新增100萬頭產能。當前的完全成本略低於16元/公斤,歷史平均水平在13元/公斤左右,隨着出欄量提升攤薄固定成本,以及死淘率的大幅降低,養殖成本有望持續下降。內部管理方面,公司調整了基層員工薪酬結構,使得薪資水平與績效掛鈎更緊密,表現好的員工可以在薪資上明顯拉開差距,正向激勵員工。
品牌生鮮豬肉佔比持續提升,豬肉成本上升導致養殖以外業務均虧損,未來有望扭虧。
生鮮豬肉銷量為5.1萬噸,較去年同期下降40%,其中品牌產品收入佔比為40.7%,較去年同期增加9.4pct。疫情極大刺激了線上商品銷售,上半年電商渠道收入同比增長85.4%,盒裝豬肉銷量1600萬盒,同比增長18.6%,日均銷量突破8600萬盒。我們認為疫情使得消費者對於盒裝品牌生鮮肉的接受程度更高,未來該部分業務有望持續增長。但由於豬肉成本大幅上升,生鮮肉業務上半年虧損6400萬。肉類進口大幅增長194%,達到17.5萬噸,但由於豬價波動導致存貨減值,上半年虧損1億。肉製品業務由於豬肉成本上升而導致虧損4400萬。但是隨着未來豬價的逐步下降,下游業務將實現扭虧為盈。我們看好生鮮豬肉板塊未來的利潤貢獻逐步提升。
我們預測20、21、22年淨利潤分別為24.5、25.7、12.1億人民幣,對應EPS為0.71、0.73、0.35港元。
考慮到豬價可能進入下降週期,我們認為短期公司股價將隨豬價波動,但長期的公允價值將取決於公司的成本管控能力和產能擴張能力,我們認為公司自繁自養模式有利於提高生產效率、降低成本以及確保防疫效果。維持“買入”評級,上調目標價至3.66港元,較當前股價有27%的上漲空間。
風險提示:非瘟疫情發生反覆;豬價下跌超預期;生豬養殖成本高於預期。
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