華住集團-S(01179.HK)：酒店巨頭回歸，業績企穩回升
機構：興業證券
投資要點
體量大，增長快的酒店巨頭。華住為中國第二大及全球第九大酒店集團。截至 20H1，華住擁有 6,187 家在營酒店，包括 758 家租賃自有酒店及5,429家管理特許經營酒店，公司仍擁有 2,375家待開業酒店。公司經營超過 20 多個酒店品牌，品牌矩陣完整。漢庭於全球經濟酒店品牌中數量達第一；全季為中國中檔酒店之首。公司近年加大了中高檔佈局並於 20 年收購德意志酒店以走進全球市場。輕資產發展模式下公司管理加盟及特許經營酒店數持續攀升，推動公司酒店總數自 2017年的 3746家增至 2019年 的 5618 家，CAGR 達 22.5%，淨增長幅度居全球上市酒店集團之首。
業績觸底回升，基本面迎邊際改善。截止 6 月，公司境內 96%的酒店已恢復運營，入住率從 Q2 的 69%（行業平均為 40%）升至 8 月的 84%，ADR為 223 元（2Q 為 185 元）;至 6 月底，79%DH 酒店已恢復運營,8 月入住率 由 6 月底的 29%顯著回升至 41%，公司業績觸底回升並持續領先大市。
我國連鎖酒店滲透率低，下沉市場可觀。我們長期看好國內酒店行業連鎖率提升、結構升級、門店下沉的邏輯。2019 年我國連鎖酒店客房數量僅佔總酒店客房的 24.9%，遠低於 41.1%的全球平均水平。疫情當下，行業加速洗牌，市場向頭部集中。華住作為頭部酒店已憑藉其高知名度的品牌、行業領先的集團化酒店管理系統、良好的加盟商合作體系及強大的會員儲 備實現了逆勢擴張，待開業店數佔現有門店數約 4 成，擴展空間可期。
目前上市主要酒店公司 2021E/2022E 平均 EV/EBITDA 為 15.4/12.6 倍。由於其行業領先的擴張速度及強大的會員體系，華住長期享受估值溢價，其現價對應 21/22年 EV/EBITDA達 20/16倍。根據彭博一致預期，公司 21/22年 EPS 為 7.3/10.4 元。按發售價格 297 港元(較美股折價 8.8%)計算，對應的 2021/2022 年 EV/EBITDA 分別為 18/14.6 倍。考慮到未來三年公司領先行業的業績增速，其定價所對應估值處合理區間。建議投資者“申購”。
風險提示：疫情反覆，競爭加劇，宏觀經濟疲軟，品牌形象受挫，特許經營管理系統風險，槓桿較高
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