融創中國(01918.HK):充沛土儲支持發展,地產+價值釋放可期,給予“買入”評級,目標價53.70港元
機構:中泰證券
評級 :買入
目標價:53.70港元
土地儲備充沛且優質
公司8月/前8月合約銷售同比增25.3%/1.7%至624.3億/3117.5億元,完成全年6000億銷售目標的52%。公司下半年可售貨值6213億,其中超過76%位於一二線城市,72%為新推盤,達到65%的去化率即可實現銷售目標;我們估算公司18/19年去化率約為68%/71%,故20年達標概率高。截止20年中,公司總確權土儲2.5億方,保守估計對應貨值超3萬億;其中10%位於一線城市,70%位於二線城市;平均土地成本4,312元,地貨比約30%;土儲年期(總貨值/20年銷售目標)為5.0,在大中型內房股中排名前列。我們認為充沛優質土儲是公司未來持續獲得穩健增長的保證。
上半年淨負債率下降23.3%
公司20年總收入同比升0.7%至773.4億元;毛利率23.0%,略低於19H1的25.2%及19FY的24.5%;SG&A佔收入比重8.1%,低於19H1的8.6%及19FY的8.5%;出售金科股份(000656CH)24.36%的股份帶來額外收益,帶動其他收入同比升40.8%;應占核心淨利潤同比上升3.0%至130.4億人民幣,應占淨利潤率16.9%。上半年公司實現了債務規模與淨負債率的雙降:1)總債務3203億,較去年底減少0.6%;2)淨負債率149.0%,低於19年的172.3%。
地產+業務進入價值快速釋放期
融創服務港股上市可期。截止5月底,物管子公司融創服務在管面積約1億平方米,儲備面積1.26億平方米。19年收入28.3億;19年淨利潤2.7億,17-19CAGR150.7%。公司已於8月初遞交融創服務上市申請表(A1),高成長性將有助融創服務在上市時獲得較理想估值。投資貝殼找房(BEKEUS)獲得豐厚回報。公司17年1月公告,以26億人民幣獲得北京鏈家6.25%的股權;20年8月貝殼找房(原鏈家)完成美股上市,截止9月16日市值684.6億美金,公司持股約4%,投資回報非常理想。我們預計融創服務上市帶來的現金與貝殼找房上市來的金融資產公允價值收益,將有助於增厚權益及降槓桿。
維持盈利預測,調整目標價至53.7港元,重申“買入”評級
我們維持目前的盈利預測。我們繼續看好公司基本面:1)充沛優質的土儲是公司核心競爭力之一,有望支持公司獲得持續穩健增長;2)中期降槓桿超預期,我們預計下半年淨負債率將繼續下行。我們相信公司龍頭地位穩固。我們將目標20/21年PE由7.5x下調至6.5x,以反映8月以來融資政策收緊對行業銷售增速中樞的潛在影響,目標價相應調整至53.7港元。目標價相對前收盤價有66.8%的潛在升幅;我們維持買入評級。
風險提示:(一)房地產政策大幅收緊;(二)匯率劇烈波動;(三)疫情發展超預期
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