You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
航空8月數據點評:國內航線投放基本恢復,政策將繼續推升供給增長,維持“看好”評級
格隆匯 09-18 14:13

機構:東興證券

評級:看好

事件:

據民航局披露,8月國內航線旅客運量已恢復至去年同期8成以上,並超過今年1月份,是今年以來月度國內旅客運輸規模的最高值。

點評:

整體供給格局:雖然國內航線運力供給已經恢復八成以上,但由於國際航線無法正常投放運力,三大航整體的ASK投放較去年僅恢復至6成左右。三大航(與海航)在國際航線恢復之前,始終會面臨飛機利用率偏低的問題,且寬體佔比越高的航司現階段運力恢復程度越低。

需求判斷:8月除海航外,各上市公司的國內運力投放都已經接近或超過去年同期水平。但進入7月後,各航司客座率不再有明顯提升,需求端的恢復還需要一定時間。我們認為,在供給基本恢復的情況下,後續航司的重心應該轉移到提升客座率與票價上。繼續提升供給對航司的邊際收益正在下降。

供給判斷:三大航8月的國內運力供給都恢復至同比九成以上,客座率74%左右,較去年同期有12%的差距。從運力投放曲線上看,三大航的國內運力投放並沒有放緩的趨勢。結合近期北上廣航線准入政策的放開,預計三大航的運力投放還會持續1-2個月的快速增長。春秋與吉祥兩家中型航司的國內運力投放都已經明顯超過了去年同期。考慮到兩航司今年基本沒有新增飛機引進,後續進一步增加運力投放的空間不大,預計春秋與吉祥未來2個月的運力投放增速會有明顯放緩。

政策變化帶來的影響:民航局近日從促進國內需求大循環的角度出發,調整放寬了涉及北上廣的部分國內航線的准入政策。此舉有助於國內航線實現結構性改善,提升一二線機場投放運力的佔比,從而緩解航司的經營壓力。在政策的加持下,九、十月份國內航線運力供給環比還將繼續增長。但現階段航空需求尚未完全恢復,行業供需與價格體系處於弱平衡狀態,我們需要警惕運力過度投放帶來的客座率與票價大幅下滑。

投資建議:考慮到疫情已經為航空業帶來巨大的虧損,且持續時間還具有較大不確定性,故我們建議投資者等待全球疫情出現拐點,國際航線有明顯恢復跡象後再考慮對於A股三大航的配置;現階段建議關注運力投放恢復較快的春秋與吉祥。

風險提示:疫情持續時間超預期;宏觀經濟下行;民航政策變化;地緣政治因素;油價匯率大幅波動;異常天氣因素等

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account