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《大行报告》美银证券:内银股基本面改善 估值近历史低
阿思达克 09-16 14:32
美银证券发表报告,指出内地银行业正看到基本面及宏观经济改善。中国整体信贷增长由1月份的13.2%提速至13.5%,而信贷对GDP的高增长倍数将带动第四季至明年上半年的GDP强劲复苏。在8月份,狭义货币M1增长率为8%,创2018年2月份以来新高,将推动PPI复苏,及未来6至12个月的工业盈利增长。

该行又提到,内地银行同业拆借利率及债券收益率在5月份见底,并一直在反弹。在良好的宏观背景之下,内地银行业普遍预期利润率压力将下降,交易量增长稳健及未来不良贷款形式减少,支持该行认为银行业将迎来重新评级。

美银证券表示,内银股的盈利增长仍有高度的不确定性,因为监管机构或会继续要求在下半年甚至明年提高拨备。另外,潜在的削减派息比率、每股派息及股息收益率等举动都可能会带来更多风险。

该行指,仍未知内银股的盈利及股价何时会见底,但强调拨备周期将会消去。在经过一轮清算後,银行的核心盈利能力保持不变,资产负债表也愈来愈健康。美银证券指,内银股目前估值接近历史低位,认为对投资者来说是良好的开始买入机会。

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