You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
吉利汽車(00175.HK):底部蓄力,重整旗鼓再出發,給予“買入”評級
格隆匯 09-09 14:52

機構:東吳證券

評級:買入

投資要點

行業技術變革催生格局重構,新一輪行業紅利長期利好自主。國內乘用車市場邊際向好,2025 年預計銷量增長至 2510 萬輛,車企步入存量博弈階段。雙積分政策持續施壓,ADAS 輔助駕駛強勢來臨,傳統整車企業、造車新勢力以及第三方互聯網企業不斷入局,行業面臨大的格局重構。技術變革下,新一輪行業紅利來臨,對全球汽車產業固有格局造成衝擊,中國作為世界上最大的汽車產銷地,自主品牌有望受益增長。

吉利新四化+模塊化戰略佈局全面,以聯盟形式鋪開。1)新四化方面,吉利投資億咖通,設立 G-PILOT 智能汽車發展規劃,研發爬行者智能系統以及智擎動力總成系統,並創立曹操出行+耀出行共享平台,走在自主前列。2)模塊化方面,吉利以 CMA/BMA 模塊為核心,未來佈局AMA/PMA/DMA 共五大模塊,涵蓋 SUV/轎車/MPV、燃油/混動/電動,佈局最為全面。3)聯盟方面,以沃爾沃為核心,吉利與愛信精機+寧德時代+LG 化學+高通+恩智浦+偉世通+Smart Eye+華為等企業在不同領域展開合作,多方出擊,重點佈局智能化及電動化,緊跟行業趨勢變革。

量:底部穩健,上升勢頭強勁。2020 年吉利新車以電動化和智能化為方 向,領克品牌上衝下探,填補空白細分市場,戰略導向明顯。1)SUV:未來發展核心,貢獻主要增量。預計 2022 年吉利 SUV 規模達 90 萬輛,以“ICON+繽越+領克 06”為主力,涵蓋 7-15 萬元市場。2)轎車:龍頭地位穩固,保持市場前列。預計 2022 年吉利轎車規模達 40 萬輛,以“繽瑞+領克 03+Preface”為主力,涵蓋 7-15 萬元市場。3)新能源:緊鑼密鼓促發展。在現有基礎上,吉利將為旗下所有燃油車型推出插混版本,並設立集合純電品牌,預計 2022 年吉利新能源規模突破 20 萬輛。

利:降本增效,單車盈利提升。1)產能利用率。產能迅速擴張,規模效應凸顯,成本有望下降。2)模塊化。BMA/CMA 為模塊化核心,通用零部件+提升研發效率,實現降本增效。3)單車價格。新一輪車型週期開啟,單車價格上衝,總體折扣率保持在較低水平,毛利率有望高位。

盈 利 預 測 與 投 資 評 級 : 我 們 預 測 公 司 2020-2022 年 營 業 收 入961.36/1052.97/1143.33 億元,同比-2.0%/+9.5%/+8.6%,歸母淨利潤69.18/87.77/113.77 億元,同比-15.8%/+26.9%/+29.6%,對應 EPS 為0.71/0.89/1.16 元,對應 PE 為 20.47/16.13/12.45 倍,吉利汽車 A 股五家可比公司平均估值 2020-2022 分別為 33.7/25.7/20.2 倍。考慮到吉利未來業績迎來新一輪改善,2020 年對應 PE 估值處於低位,首次覆蓋,給予吉利汽車“買入”評級。

風險提示:全球疫情控制低於預期;下游乘用車需求復甦低於預期;與沃爾沃合併協同效應低於預期。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account