《大行报告》花旗调整内银股目标价 首选建行(00939.HK)及招行(03968.HK)
花旗发表研究报告,指出该行所覆盖的内地银行企业第二季拨备前利润按年增4%,较首季增8%有所放缓,主要是因为费用收入增长疲弱,交易收入减少及成本收入比率上升所致。由於政治压力加剧了不良贷款的处置及加强拨备,税後纯利自首季的增5.3%,放缓至第二季的跌24.9%。由於大部分内银在第二季都公布类似的盈利增长,看到市场正聚焦更多在拨备前利润的表现,以区分各银行的实际营运趋势。
该行估计,内地银行体系的不良贷款形成及拨备总额在今年分别升至3.8万亿及3.4万亿元人民币,意味或潜在拖累今年银行业盈利39%。花旗预期某些银行,包括邮储银行(01658.HK)、中信银行(00998.HK)、民生银行(01988.HK)、徽商银行(03698.HK)在盈利大幅下跌的情况下面临资本压力,或不得不降低派息比率、配股集资及减慢贷款增长。
该行预期内银2020至2022年各年的税後溢利增长平均分别是跌17.7%、升1.8%及升14.8%。由於整个行业受压,估计有10%的银行贷款将会计入拨备或在2020年底前被注销,而目前的估值反映出不良贷款率为21%,料10月底内银公布第三季业绩後或有更多买入机会。花旗上调民生银行评级,由「中性」升至「买入」,首选建设银行(00939.HK)及招商银行(03968.HK)。
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