牛熊異動 | 利潤提升，美團牛證漲超100%
美團財報顯示外賣利潤顯著提升，遠超預期，今日股價走高，相關衍生品美團中銀一一牛P（68489.HK）升幅超100%。
美團點評（3690.HK）2Q20 業績：外賣利潤顯著提升，遠超預期浦發銀行維持買入評級，提升目標價至 326.0 港元，潛在升幅 20.3%。
盈利遠超預期：美團點評二季度收入同比增長 8.9%，達到 247 億人民幣，高於 SPDBI 預測 1.1%，超市場預期 4.8%；調整後淨利潤爲 27.2億，同比增長 82%，遠超預期，主要由於本季度餐飲外賣業務的利潤水平大幅提升。
騎手成本下降，外賣盈利顯著提升：二季度餐飲外賣收入爲 145 億，同比增長 13.2%，與 SPDBI 預測一致（較預測高 0.2%）。外賣交易金額同比增長 16.9%，變現率略有下降，由去年同期的 13.8%降至 13.4%，主要由於用戶補貼增加和品牌商戶佔比提升。經營利潤 12.5 億，同比增長 66%，經營利潤率同比提升 2.7 個百分點，至 8.6%，其中高利潤率的廣告收入同比增 62%。二季度騎手成本有所下降，使得單均盈利達到 0.56 元，同比提升 55%。隨着學校外賣訂單的陸續恢復（二季度恢復 30%），單均外賣價格環比將有所下降，我們預計下半年的外賣利潤率較二季度會有小幅回落，長期看仍有上升空間。
到店酒旅三季度有望恢復正增長：酒旅業是受疫情衝擊最嚴重的行業之一，恢復時間較長。本季度，到店酒旅業務收入爲 45 億，同比下滑 13.4%，其中酒店間夜量同比下降 17%。隨着疫情基本得到控制，我們預計三季度到店酒旅收入有望恢復同比正增長。同時，公司表示下半年會增加用戶激勵，來拉動酒店間夜量的增長，下半年到店酒旅的利潤端增速將落後於收入端。
維持買入評級，提升目標價至 326.0 港元：由於公司盈利能力改善，我們將 FY20-22 年收入分別上調 0.3%、0.9%和 1.6%；FY20-22 調整後淨利潤分別上調 35.2%、2.2%和 3.5%。由於行業平均估值倍數上升，基於分部加總法的目標價上調至 326.0 港元，分別對應 88x 和56x 的 2021E 和 2022E 年的市盈率。
投資風險： 人力成本上升；競爭激烈。
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