牛熊異動 | 利潤提升,美團牛證漲超100%
美團財報顯示外賣利潤顯著提升,遠超預期,今日股價走高,相關衍生品美團中銀一一牛P(68489.HK)升幅超100%。
美團點評(3690.HK)2Q20 業績:外賣利潤顯著提升,遠超預期浦發銀行維持買入評級,提升目標價至 326.0 港元,潛在升幅 20.3%。
盈利遠超預期:美團點評二季度收入同比增長 8.9%,達到 247 億人民幣,高於 SPDBI 預測 1.1%,超市場預期 4.8%;調整後淨利潤爲 27.2億,同比增長 82%,遠超預期,主要由於本季度餐飲外賣業務的利潤水平大幅提升。
騎手成本下降,外賣盈利顯著提升:二季度餐飲外賣收入爲 145 億,同比增長 13.2%,與 SPDBI 預測一致(較預測高 0.2%)。外賣交易金額同比增長 16.9%,變現率略有下降,由去年同期的 13.8%降至 13.4%,主要由於用戶補貼增加和品牌商戶佔比提升。經營利潤 12.5 億,同比增長 66%,經營利潤率同比提升 2.7 個百分點,至 8.6%,其中高利潤率的廣告收入同比增 62%。二季度騎手成本有所下降,使得單均盈利達到 0.56 元,同比提升 55%。隨着學校外賣訂單的陸續恢復(二季度恢復 30%),單均外賣價格環比將有所下降,我們預計下半年的外賣利潤率較二季度會有小幅回落,長期看仍有上升空間。
到店酒旅三季度有望恢復正增長:酒旅業是受疫情衝擊最嚴重的行業之一,恢復時間較長。本季度,到店酒旅業務收入爲 45 億,同比下滑 13.4%,其中酒店間夜量同比下降 17%。隨着疫情基本得到控制,我們預計三季度到店酒旅收入有望恢復同比正增長。同時,公司表示下半年會增加用戶激勵,來拉動酒店間夜量的增長,下半年到店酒旅的利潤端增速將落後於收入端。
維持買入評級,提升目標價至 326.0 港元:由於公司盈利能力改善,我們將 FY20-22 年收入分別上調 0.3%、0.9%和 1.6%;FY20-22 調整後淨利潤分別上調 35.2%、2.2%和 3.5%。由於行業平均估值倍數上升,基於分部加總法的目標價上調至 326.0 港元,分別對應 88x 和56x 的 2021E 和 2022E 年的市盈率。
投資風險: 人力成本上升;競爭激烈。
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