疫情错位下的美元大跌：人民币会持续升值吗 ？
机构：中泰证券
今年以来，新冠病毒疫情可以说是全球各类资产价格走势的主导者，各国疫情演绎节奏的错位，也导致经济和资产的表现不同，一个比较典型的例子就是美元指数。近几个月美元指数大幅下跌，人民币的汇率升值，其实也和全球疫情错位这种短期因素有着很大关系。而从近期的情况来看，美元或已见底，未来有反弹的风险，人民币汇率仍有压力。
1、什么决定了美元指数？美元指数是美元对一揽子货币汇率的加权平均数，美元指数受欧元、日元、英镑影响都比较大。决定汇率最主要因素是经济基本面的相对走势。从数据上来看，美国和欧元区经济增速之差与美元指数之间存在比较强的正相关性，美国和欧元区 PMI 之差与美元指数也存在较强的正相关性。还有很多角度能够理解美元指数的变化，比如利率平价等式，但其背后更多还是基本面在起作用。
2、美元指数为何大跌？回顾今年以来的美元走势，可谓一波三折。从 3 月初开始，全球爆发了类似于 08 年的流动性危机，美元指数迅速上涨。美联储迅速反应，全球流动性危机逐步缓解，美元指数也在 3 月下旬高位回落，之后转入震荡。从 5 月底以来，美元指数继续大幅走弱，这主要与美国国内矛盾激化有关。而从 6 月底以来的这一波美元下跌，主要原因是全球疫情的再度错位。6 月中下旬以来，美国新冠疫情二次爆发，新增病例人数再度大幅上升，而同时期的欧洲各国防控较好。疫情在美、欧之间的错位，导致二者经济复苏前景明显背离，这是美元指数大跌的主要原因。
3、警惕美元反弹风险。近期欧美疫情又出现了反向错位，美国新增病例人数持续回落，但欧洲疫情又有了抬头的迹象。从高频数据来看，欧洲经济恢复也进入了瓶颈期。如果这种情况继续演绎，欧洲货币相对美元是有贬值压力的，也会推动美元指数回升。近几个月人民币对美元升值，一方面和中美疫情错位有关系，另一方面也和美元指数大幅下跌有关。往前看，我国经济复苏斜率大概率逐步放缓，而美国疫情得到控制后，经济会逐渐复苏。如果美元指数趋于上升，再加上中美问题未来两月继续发酵，人民币汇率仍有贬值压力。
风险提示：疫情发酵；经济下行；政策变动。
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