中國海外宏洋集團(00081.HK):積極開拓,穩步擴規模
機構:興業證券
投資要點
我們的觀點:公司堅持持續、穩定、健康地高質量增長策略,土地投資專注於主流城市的主流地段,銷售規模將以不低於 20%的速度複合增長,利潤將以不低於 2 位數的速度複合增長。目前公司股價對應 2019 年 4.8 倍PE,股息收益率約 5%,考慮到公司較低的槓桿水平,以及背靠中海集團,在銷售和業績持續增長的前提下,建議投資者關注。
歸母淨利潤同比增長 28.5%,業績符合預期:公司 2020 上半年營業收入161.1 億元人民幣(下同),同比增長 45.7%,其中物業銷售收入 159.8 億元,同比增長 46.5%;毛利 52.6 億元,同比增長 35.8%;歸母淨利潤 20.3 億元,同比增長 28.5%,毛利率和歸母淨利率分別為 32.7%和 12.6%,分別下降2.4 個百分點和 1.7 個百分點;中期每股派息 7 港仙,派息率為 10.5%,業 績符合預期。
合約銷售規模穩定增長:公司 2020 年 1-7 月實現合約銷售金額 321.9億元,同比增長 9%,已完成 2020 年銷售目標的 53.7%;合約銷售面積為 275.2萬平米,同比略降 0.8%,公司銷售逐步恢復,穩定增長。
積極開拓具有發展價值的城市:公司 2020 上半年土新增土儲面積 413.2萬平米,完成全年目標的 59%。公司積極開拓二線及強三線城市,上半年新進入泰州、鎮江、廊坊、唐山、金華和遵義 6 座城市。截至 2020 年 6 月 30 日,公司總土儲達到 2634 萬平米。公司將繼續聚焦鄰近大都會城市和具有增長潛力的區域性經濟中心,為公司長遠發展不斷補充豐富優質的土地儲備。
保持低槓桿、低融資成本:由於公司業務快速發展,截至 2020 年 6 月 30日,公司淨負債率增至 48.7%,但依然處於行業較低水平;平均融資成本為 4.23%,較 2019 年末下降 43 個基點,維持競爭優勢。公司在手現金 263.4億元,備用銀行信貸額度 82 億元,資金充裕;總有息借貸 364.1 億元,其中一年內到期還款佔比 42%,現金短債比超過 1.7 倍,債務結構健康。
風險提示:宏觀經濟增長放緩;行業調控政策加嚴;流動性收緊;公司銷售不及預期;人民幣貶值。


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