小米集團-W(01810.HK)2020年Q2業績點評:等待國內份額提升機會兑現,增強未來業績成長確定性,維持“買入”評級,目標價24.0 港元
機構:光大證券
評級:買入
目標價:24.0 港元
◆2020Q2 收入及 Non-GAAP 利潤表現超出市場預期
2Q20 總收入 535 億元,同比上升 3.1%,環比上升 7.7%,高於彭博一致預期的 514 億,主要源自手機業務表現超預期。由於毛利率環比下降,公司 2Q 毛利潤基本環比持平、且銷售、研發及行政各項費用環比增加;non-GAAP 淨利潤 34 億,同比下降 7%,環比大幅上升 47%,顯著優於彭博一致預期的 24億,主要源自非經營性收益增加影響。
◆2Q 手機業務表現優於預期,下半年反彈更加顯著
2Q 手機業務收入同比下降 1.2% ,環比上升 4.3%,主要由於海外手機出貨環比降幅整體可控以及 ASP 情況優於預期。手機出貨整體環比下降 3.1%(中國區出貨環比上升 27%,海外出貨環比下降 13%),ASP 環比繼續增長 7.5%(源自中高端機型佔比擴大)。步入下半年,綜合國內外手機出貨均有望環比大幅上升、ASP 由於 5G 機型向中低端機型滲透可能環比小幅下滑,我們預計20 年手機業務有望實現雙位數增長。
◆IoT 業務下半年繼續反彈,互聯網業務多元化保證穩定表現
2Q IoT 業務收入同比上升 2.1%,環比上升 17%,環比上升幅度受限主要優於國內市場尚未恢復到疫情前的正常消費水平,核心品類電視及筆記本電腦同比下滑,靠掃地機器人、路由器等品類驅動增長。展望下半年疫情影響進一步消退有望驅動 IoT 業務繼續反彈。2Q 互聯網業務收入同比上升 29%、環比基本持平,其中游戲業務環比明顯下降、依靠廣告業務繼續強勁增長來對衝影響。
◆估值與評級
考慮到年內研發投入規劃超預期,我們下調 20 年淨利潤預測 6%至 115 億元,考慮到伴隨 5G 手機向中低端市場滲透,公司國內手機出貨份額有望提升驅動21 年及以後公司整體盈利能力提升,我們分別上調 21-22 年淨利潤預測7%/8%至 162/207 億元,對應 20-22E CAGR 34%。考慮到 5G 時代國內手機出貨份額上升機會兑現有助提升國內手機 MAU 及 ARPU 表現、以及電視及海外市場變現如期推進有利於提升其互聯網業務盈利前景,同時手機及 IoT 硬件業務在歐洲市場渠道擴張順利打開未來發展空間,基於 SOTP估值法,上調目標價至 24.0 港元,對應 21/22 年 32x/25x PE,維持“買入”評級。
◆風險提示:國內中高端手機未成功放量;海外手機市場開拓受阻;IoT 設備滲透進程放緩;互聯網變現進程不及預期;海外疫情持續發酵。
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