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一文了解券商對小米(01810.HK)公布業績後評級及目標價
阿思達克 08-27 11:55
小米集團(01810.HK)今早股價破頂上揚,盤中曾高見21.75元曾漲13.5%,高盛指小米第二季非國際財務報告準則經調整盈利勝市場預期40%。昨日(26日)收市後公布截至6月底止中期業績,純利按年升31.2%至66.62億元人民幣,高於本網綜合5間券商預測上限的45.85億元人民幣。每股盈利0.279元人民幣,不派息。經調整淨利潤按年跌0.7%至56.74億元人民幣,高於本網綜合4間券商預測上限的48.39億元人民幣。期內營業額按年升7.9%至1,032.4億元人民幣。

單計小米第二季收入按年升3.1%至535.4億元人民幣,經調整淨利潤達33.73億元人民幣,勝預期。公司第二季度智能手機分部毛利率由去年同期的8.1%降至7.2%,主要因為線上購物節期間增強促銷力度,物聯網與生活消費產品分部毛利率則擴闊0.2個百分點至11.4%,互聯網服務分部毛利率則收窄至60.3%。第二季智能手機收入按年跌1.2%至316億元人民幣,銷量2,830萬部,受惠中高端手機銷量佔比上升,平均銷售單價按年升11.8%,按季升7.5%。

【業績勝預期 歐洲市場強】

摩根士丹利指出,小米手機業務有兩項正面因素,第一是手機於海外市佔擴張持續上軌道,尤其為歐洲,第二是預期新手遊推動業績。但物聯網表現仍然較弱,部分產品在經濟放緩下的重要性降低,金融科技業務若在下半年持續出現撥備,將出現風險。該行指,管理層承諾持續推動中國本土及海外市場,該行認為這是合理策略,但亦預期經營開支會在下半年持續高企。該行上調對小米目標價,由20元升至24元,維持「增持」評級。

高盛上調小米明年及後年收入預測6%至8%,基於小米手機市毓上升上調手機收入預測,與及手機單價上升。此外,該行亦上調對小米互聯網收益估算,基於更多手機付運及付費用戶增長。該行上調小米明年及後年經調整淨利潤6%至8%,但預期收益增長將被增加的銷售推廣與研發開支所抵銷。該行維持對小米的「買入」評級,目標價由14.3元升至22.5元。

大和則指出,小米手機組合內高端手機比例增加,導致單價按年升12%,展望疫情影響過去及中國5G手機更新周期剛開展,預期小米下半年將繼續佔取市佔,包括向更多國家供貨,及在供應鏈運作大致如常下從對手取得市佔。該行上調小米目標價至24元,維持「買入」評級。

本網最新綜合7間券商對其投資評級及目標價,有6間上調目標價弓及予「買入」、「增持」或「跑贏大市」評級:

券商│投資評級│目標價

摩根士丹利│增持│20元->24元

大和│買入│15元->24元

高盛│買入│14.3元->22.5元

花旗│買入│18元->22.2元

瑞信│跑贏大市│15.3元->22.1元

美銀證券│買入│20元->22元

瑞銀│中性│19元

--------------------

券商│觀點

摩根士丹利│次季業績憂喜參半,股價將因潛在上行風險上升

大和│手機付運料加快增長

高盛│明年市佔擴張,上調目標價

花旗│次季業績勝預期,基於增長加快上調目標價

瑞信│次季業績受惠投資公平值盈利,手機業務下半年動力增強

美銀證券│季績勝預期,產品組合優化及從華為取得市佔

瑞銀│核心營運溢利大致符預期

(fc/w)

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