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中海物業(02669.HK):積極外拓,業績穩健增長,維持“買入”評級,目標價 8.60 港元
格隆匯 08-24 15:05

機構:興業證券

評級:買入

目標價:8.60 港元

投資要點

維持“買入”評級,目標價 8.60 港元:公司的中期業績增速略低於預期,上半年在疫情影響下,公司仍然取得優秀的外拓成績,隨着下半年地產結算增加,公司的在管面積將穩步增長;同時下半年公司的增值服務也將加 速,尤其是非業主增值服務,毛利率也將有所改善。公司的股權激勵有望在年內獲批,這將大大提升管理層的積極性。我們預計公司 2020/2021 年營業收入分別為 68.2 和 86.4 億港元,分別同比增長 24.7%和 26.8%,淨利潤分別為 7.0 和 9.2 億港元,分別同比增長 30.2%和 31.5%。我們維持公 司的 “買入”評級,目標價 8.6 港元,相當於 2020/2021 年 40/31 倍 PE,較當前股價還有 16%的上升空間。

淨利潤同比增長 12.7%,低於預期:公司 2020 年中期營業收入 28.5 億港 元(下同),同比增長 18.7%, 其中物業管理、增值服務、停車位買賣服務的佔比分別為 78.2%、21.4%和 0.3%,增值服務的佔比進一步提升;淨利潤為 2.8 億元,同比增長 12.7%,低於市場預期;公司中期每股派息 2.2港仙,與去年同期持平。

業務結構變化導致毛利率下降:2020H1 公司的綜合毛利率為 18%,較上年同期降低 2.1 個百分點,其中物業管理、增值服務和停車位買賣的毛利率分別為 16.2%、24.4%和 29.2%,三項業務的毛利佔比分別為 70.4%、29.1%和 0.5%,增值服務毛利率下降主要由於疫情導致經營成本提升以及社區增值服務中毛利率較低的生鮮食品及防疫物資等產品銷售佔比提升。

市場化外拓成效顯著:公司憑藉優質的服務和強大的品牌在市場化外拓上取得顯著成效,2020 年上半年新增外拓合約面積約 1162 萬平米。公司的在管項目涵蓋住宅、寫字樓、商業、政府公建、產業園等多種業態,上半年新增了高鐵、航空等服務類別,同時開展股權合作及收併購,多渠道多元化實現外拓項目。截止 2020 年中期,公司在管面積 1.575 億平米,同比增長 10.2%。

風險提示:業務擴張和收購不及預期;物業管理費提價受阻;增值業務拓展不及預期。

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