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《业绩前瞻》券商料平安(02318.HK)中期新业务价值倒退24% 料税後营运利润微降
阿思达克 08-24 14:48
中国平安(02318.HK)将於本周四(27日)公布今年中期业绩,新冠疫情令内地政府实施限制社交距离措施,抑制了线下保险销售活动,第二季受到个人首年保费收入及新业务价值利润率受压拖累,本网综合8间券商预期中国平安今年上半年新业务价值介乎308亿元至349亿人民币,较上年同期410.52亿人民币,按年倒退15%至25%,中位数312亿人民币,按年跌24%。

由於2019年上半年股市强劲表现及保险税收新规带来税收返还,带来了2019年上半年较高的利润基数,同时2020年上半年股市下滑及准备金补提的压力下,本网综合4间券商预期中国平安2020年上半年录归属於母公司股东税後营运利润(OPAT)介乎710亿至749亿人民币,较上年同期734.64亿人民币,按年跌3.4%至升2%,中位数727.75亿人民币,按年跌1.9%。

【新业务逊同业 疫情影响转型】

大和料中国平安上半年新业务价值利按年跌24%至312亿人民币,料其上半年保险代理人数按年跌8%、推更多储蓄产品令产品组合恶化下,料其第二季受到首年保费收入及新业务价值利润率受压拖累,并估计今年余下时间仍会面临挑战。

野村本月初发表报告,料中国平安今年上半年新业务价值按年倒退23%至316.1亿人民币,意味着其第二季新业务价值倒退22%。该行预计,中国平安上半年税後运营溢利按年增长2%,即其第二季按年倒退1%。

野村估计中国平安今上半年旗下寿险业务表现会落後於同业,因新冠疫情响其由寿险保险代理转型至线上平台的步伐、其寿险业务缺乏充足的科技支援,估计其今年下半年新业务价值仍会按年倒退7%。

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本网综合8间券商预期中国平安今年上半年新业务价值介乎308亿元至349亿人民币,较上年同期410.52亿人民币,按年倒退15%至25%,中位数312亿人民币,按年跌24%。

券商│今年上半年新业务价值预测(人民币)│按年变幅

美银证券│349亿元│-15%

瑞银│344.84亿元│-16%

花旗│320亿元│-22%

野村│316.1亿元│-23%

大和│312亿元│-24%

海通国际│312亿元│-24%

中金│308.17亿元│-25%

摩根士丹利│308亿元│-25%

瑞信│308亿元│-25%

按上半年新业务价值410.52亿元人民币计

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本网综合4间券商预期中国平安2020年上半年录归属於母公司股东税後营运利润(OPAT)介乎710亿至749亿人民币,较上年同期734.64亿人民币,按年跌3.4%至升2%,中位数727.75亿人民币,按年跌1.9%。

券商│今年上半年税後营运利润预测(人民币)│按年变幅

野村│749.34亿元│+2%

中金│734.73亿元│+0.01%

摩根士丹利│720.76亿元│-1.9%

美银证券│710亿元│-3.4%

按国寿归属於母公司股东税後营运利润734.64亿人民币

(ta/w)

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