藥明生物(02269.HK)：利潤增長靚麗，業績符合預期，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點： *如非特殊説明，本報告貨幣為人民幣
收入增長 21%，歸母淨利潤增長 63.6%，業績符合預期。公司發佈 2020年中報，收入 19.44 億元，同比增長 21.0%，其中 IND 前收入 9.63億元，增長 18.2%，IND 後收入 9.57 億元，增長 20.8%；毛利潤 7.87億元，增長 17.3%，歸母淨利潤 7.36 億元，增長 63.6%，經調整合並淨利潤 7.34 億元，同比增長 40.7%。利潤增長靚麗，整體符合預期。
項目數和未完成訂單增長強勁，全球新佔比繼續提高。公司管線綜合項目數增加至 286 個，按年記新增高達 62 個。項目中 First-in-Class數量由 2019 年中期的 58 個大幅增加至 114 個，佔比從 25.9%提升至39.9%。截至 2020 年 6 月，未完成訂單總額躍升至 94.64 億美元。WuxiBodyTM雙抗平台認可度不斷提高，合作項目提高到 26 個，潛在里程碑收入達到 36.91 億美元，里程碑的確認將持續提高盈利能力。
COVID-19 危中有機，CMO 業務值得期待。公司規劃於 2023 年全球產能達到 28 萬升，打造覆蓋 5 個國家的全球供應鏈。當前公司擁有19 個 3 期臨牀項目，預計有 2 個項目有望於年內分別在中國和美國獲批進入商業化生產階段。公司目前已有超過 10 個新冠中和抗體訂單，且有 27 個新冠項目和 4 個新冠疫苗的生產訂單在洽談中。新冠疫苗的生產訂單落地後有望為公司明年帶來上億美金的收入增量，考慮即將進入商業化生產的抗體藥物及將於 2022 年產生收入的疫苗生產訂單，公司的 CMO 業務值得期待，將為公司長期成長注入新動力。
盈利預測與投資建議：預計 20-22 年收入增速 30.6%/40.7%/42.0%，歸母淨利潤增速 31.6%/40.1%/41.0%。隨着新冠中和抗體項目的進展和新冠疫苗訂單的簽署，業績具備上修空間。採用 DCF 方法得到公司合理價值為 196 港元/股，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：研發進度不及預期；新增項目數放緩；海外疫情持續嚴峻。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
