藥明生物(02269.HK)2020年中報點評：疫情不減業績，未來持續可期，維持“買入”評級
機構：國信證券
評級：買入
業績表現靚麗，市場地位穩定
2020H1 實現營收 19.44 億元（+21.0%）、歸母淨利潤 7.31 億元（+62.6%），經調整純利 7.34 億元（+40.7%），業績表現靚麗。疫情雖然影響正常業務，但公司獲得 10 多個新冠疫苗和抗體項目。憑藉着業內最佳交付時間及最優交付結果，公司進一步鞏固市場地位，業務基本面保持穩健。
綜合項目增長穩健，未完成訂單持續推動未來收入增長
2020H1 新增綜合項目 38 個，臨牀Ⅲ期項目新增 3 個，有 4 個項目從外部轉入（其中 2 個Ⅲ期），里程碑收入 2410 萬美元。總項目數高達286 個，複合增長率達到 39.7%，受簽訂 20 年近 30 億美元疫苗 CMO合同及新冠項目大幅增加利好推動，未完成訂單服務同比增長 232%，達到 58 億美元，總量躍升至 95 億美元，其中將於 3 年內完成的訂單保持穩健增長，預期將持續改善利潤水平。
新冠疫情危中尋機，展現強大研發實力和執行力
疫情爆發以來，公司一方面啟動連續生產計劃，開發遠程數字化系統，向客户提供遠程查廠和訪問，保障業務順利開展；另一方面迅速把握新的發展機會，已與美國、歐洲、中國客户簽訂了 10+個新冠項目，合同總價值約 3.2 億美元，其中包括 1.16 億美元的 VIR/GSK COVID-19 中和抗體生產合同，到目前為止簽單成功率達到 70%，完成 3 個新冠項目 IND 提交，新冠項目從初次接洽到項目啟動僅用時 47 天，展現出高效的執行能力。估計 2020 年-2021 年新冠相關項目分別貢獻 8000 萬、1.5 億美元收入。
風險提示：研發進展不達預期；項目終止數目增加；全球疫情影響等。
投資建議：生物製劑 CDMO 龍頭，維持“買入”評級
維持此前盈利預測 2020-2022 年歸母淨利潤 14.05/19.19/27.07 億元，同比增速 39/37/41%；攤薄 EPS 為 1.08/1.48/2.09 元，當前股價對應PE 為 137/100/71x。公司作為全球生物製劑 CDMO 龍頭，具有技術平台和人才優勢，業績維持高速增長，維持“買入”評級。
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