銀河娛樂(00027.HK):20年Q2業績優於預期,預計公司可快於行業復甦,維持“增持”評級,目標價 67.2 港元
機構:中泰證券
評級:增持
目標價:67.2 港元
2020 年 Q2 經調整 EBITDA 優於預期
銀河娛樂於 20 年 Q2 淨收入為 11.5 億港元(下同),同比下跌 91.2%;經調整 EBITDA 為虧損 13.7億,同比盈轉虧,但優於我們預期,主要是 1) 建材業務錄得強勁表現(EBITDA 同比增長 7.1%,環比大增 227.7%)、2) 澳門銀河成本管理優於預期。總體上,集團經營狀況仍非常穩健,削減成本效益顯著,第二季日均營運開支從 340 萬美元減少至 250 萬美元,環比減幅達到 26.4%。截至 2020 年 6 月底,淨現金達到 436 億港元,我們預測公司可在零收入的極端環境下支撐 65 個月的營運。
旅遊簽註已重啟,行業已見曙光
內地已分階段復辦個人遊及旅行團簽註,包括 8 月 12 日復辦珠海居民來澳旅遊簽註、8 月 26 日復辦廣東省旅遊簽註、9 月 23 日復辦全國旅遊簽註,我們認為行業及業績已經見底。內地於十一黃金週前夕放寬旅行簽註,象徵意義極大,證明中央支持澳門經濟的決心。由於海外地區仍有入境隔離措施,預期澳門會成為疫情陰霾下國內居民出境遊首要的目的地,相信亦吸引部分原來前往東南亞的貴賓廳賭客迴流,加速賭收的復甦。
預計賭收恢復至正常水平的 30%左右可達至 EBITDA 的盈虧平衡
我們認為集團會快於競爭對手錄得 EBITDA 的利潤,管理層預期若賭收恢復至正常水平的 30%左右,可達至 EBITDA 的盈虧平衡,明顯低於行業平均的 40%左右。在賭場的防疫措施及社交距離限制下,我們相信貴賓廳恢復的速度會優於中場大廳,將有利高端業務佔比較多的銀河娛樂。我們估計在個人遊簽註重啟下,集團最快可在今年第四季重新錄得盈利。另外,旗艦物業“澳門銀河”提供酒店房間達 3,600 間,涵蓋低至超高端級數,迎合不同類別的客人,多元化設施為集團提供更多機遇。管理層仍維持“銀河三期”於明年上半年開業的時間表不變,相信股價會陸續反映新項目帶來的貢獻。
調整盈利預測,升目標價至 67.2 港元,維持“增持”評級
我們下調了 2020 年經調整 EBITDA 預測-109.1%至-6.2 億港元,以反映今年疫情的影響,但上調2021-22 年+0.4%/+0.3%至 157.0 億及 199.3 億港元,目標價從 62.5 港元上調至 67.2 港元,相當於2021 年 16 倍 EV/EBITDA,維持“增持”評級。
風險提示:(一)疫情擴散風險;(二)賭場續牌風險;(三) 經濟放緩打擊博彩需求。
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