《大行报告》中金料阿里巴巴及美团「染蓝」机会大 估神华、太古及信置等或遭剔出
中金发表报告，港股本周五(14日)收市後，恒生指数公司将公布恒生系列指数季度定期审议结果，其中便包括港股市场旗舰指数，如恒生和国企指数。由於这两只旗舰指数被动资金追踪规模大、且根据5月宣布的谘询结果，此次调整会首次把同股不同权和第二地上市公司纳入选股范围，该行认为因此或将带来较大变化和影响。
该行就可能调整结果预览，基於指数调整方法，初步测算阿里巴巴(09988.HK)、美团点评(03690.HK)、安踏体育(02020.HK)、阿里健康(00241.HK)、药明生物(02269.HK)、华润啤酒(00291.HK)排在恒生指数选择顺位前列；如果能够被纳入的话，按最新价格和估算的自由流通比例，静态测算权重约为3.8%、5%、1.3%、1.6%、1.4%和1.1%。进一步基於198亿美元ETF资金规模，对应潜在被动资金流入约为7.6亿、9.9亿、2.6亿、3.2亿、2.8亿、2.2亿美元。
相应的，排在顺位靠後的股票为中国神华(01088.HK)、太古(00019.HK)、信和置业(00083.HK)、恒隆地产(00101.HK)、中国旺旺(00151.HK)、新世界发展(00017.HK)，当前权重为0.2%至0.7%不等；若被剔除的话，将引发4,800万到1.5亿美元不等的资金流出。
中金表示，对指数面貌的改变：目前金融板块在恒生和国企指数中占比高达约48%和41%，这也是其年初以来大幅落後於板块结构更加均衡的MSCI中国指数和A股主要指数的原因。因此，如果上述互联网龙头公司，如阿里巴巴和美团能够顺利纳入的话，该行认为恒指成分股一进一出(固定50只)有望明显提升新经济板块在指数中的占比。
该行称，今年以来，港股通南下资金尤为强劲。年初以来累计的净买入规模已经超过4,000亿港元，超过2019 年和2017年全年水平。从南下资金的流向来看，如果以流入规模占公司市值比例的变化幅度看，南下资金主要流入医疗保健、信息科技和消费等新经济板块，这与年初以来新经济板块持续领跑整体港股市场的表现特徵一致。中金认为，在中国经济基本面和企业盈利逐步修复、港股估值偏低、AH溢价仍处於高位、以及更多科技公司赴港股上市的背景下，南下资金仍或持续流入，而这些有望新纳入港股通范围的标的，将可能受益於资金的流入和流动性的改善。
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