一文了解券商於渣打(02888.HK)公布中期业绩後最新观点及目标价
渣打集团(02888.HK)今早股价造淡，盘中曾低见39.85元，集团昨日(30日)中午收市後公布去年业绩，法定表现除税前溢利按年倒退33%至16.27亿美元，高於本网早前综合4间券商预测上限16.26亿美元，纯利按年倒退29%至10.48亿美元，按法定基准计算每股盈利25.8美仙，因应监管当局要求，决定今年不会预留、建议或派发普通股中期股息。
渣打中期基本表现经营收入按年增长5%至80.47亿美元，接近本网早前综合3间券商预测上限80.94亿美元。经营支出同时增加5%至47.13亿美元，成本对收入比率改善6个百分点至58.6%。基本表现除税前溢利按年倒退25%至19.55亿美元，纯利按年倒退30%至11.38亿美元，普通股股东有形权益回报倒退2.4个百分点至6%。信贷减值按年增加5.17倍至15.67亿美元。上半年集团客户存款及贷款按年增加5%，经调整後净息差按年倒退26个点子至1.4%。
【绩後股价软前景未明朗】
麦格理表示，维持对渣打「中性」评级，指今年上半年信贷成本录92个基1点，较今年首季为低，但认为前景仍然不明朗，维持目标价50.27元。而花旗认为，渣打第二季净利息收入按季及按年分别跌10%及15%，并较该行预测少3%，净息差亦按季跌27点子至1.28厘，经考虑会计分歧的经调整净息差亦按季收窄24点子；随着利率降至接近零，进一步减息50点子对收入的影响亦由1.2亿美元升至3.35亿美元。花旗认为，渣打季度交易收入强劲将难以为继，但成本、信贷损失及资本状况为可持续性，续予渣打「买入」评级及5.8英镑目标价(折合59元)。
摩根士丹利指出，渣打第二季信贷成本环比回落，得益於较低减值拨备，让市场惊喜，从而令其基本除税前溢利高於市场预期。渣打管理层料今年下半年收入将较上半年及去年同期呈回落，符合该行预期，拨备支出前景仍存不明朗因素，但应低於上半年。摩根士丹利维持对渣打「与大市同步」评级及目标价46元。
【季绩高预期注派息政策】
美银证券表示，渣打今年第二季业绩表现优於市场预期，收入、成本、拨备及资本等表现皆较好。撇除对债务估值调整影响，次季收入39亿美元接近首季高位，按固定汇率计更按年升4%。次季开支23.6亿美元按季持平，为长期以来低位认为。该行指渣打普通股权一级资本比率达14.3%，高於市场预期70点字，相等於有额外19亿美元可分派，为市值逾10%。该比率自年初已上升50点子，与英伦银行压测有巨大落差，为快速回复派息提供强烈理据。美银证券认为，渣打业绩为取消停止派息指令提供理据，并确认集团营运复苏。美银证券上调对渣打目标价，由52.97元上调至56.34元，维持「买入」评级。
本网最新综合8间券商对其投资评级及目标价，1间券商上调目标价，4间给予「买入」或「增持」评级：
券商│投资评级│目标价(港元)
花旗│买入│折合59元(5.8英镑)
高盛│买入│57元
美银证券│买入│52.97元->56.34元
摩根大通│增持│49元
瑞信│中性│折合48.84元(4.8英镑)
摩根士丹利│与大市同步│46元
麦格理│中性│43元
瑞银│中性│折合39.07元(3.84英镑)
券商│观点
花旗│净利差仍为业绩改善阻力
高盛│季绩远超预期，建议买入
美银证券│业绩各方面表现强劲
摩根大通│交易及成本控制抵销疲弱净利息收入
瑞信│业绩各部分均理想
摩根士丹利│收入超预测、成本及减值减少致税前盈利胜预期
麦格理│信贷风险仍高度不确定
瑞银│下半年业绩动力为关键
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