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騰訊控股(00700.HK):微信交易生態啟航,金融業務有望成為第二引擎,維持“買入”評級
格隆匯 07-28 12:04

機構:中信證券

評級:買入

微信推出平台自營電商SaaS服務小商店業務。微信小商店用户端提供完整購買能力,商家端可一鍵開店,提供電商基礎的賣貨和經營能力,目前已支持1500多種SKU。針對商家運營,小商店免收服務費及提現手續費,並提供後台資金管理功能;自帶直播帶貨及優惠營銷能力,助力商傢俬域流量運營。

小商店助力微信交易生態深度融合,金融與廣告業務料將持續受益。小商店和微信生態深度融合,獲得微信的羣內分享、搜索、LBS、分享等權限,並可以內嵌到公眾號、企業微信、社交廣告等入口。小商店有望催化更多線上、線下交易場景向微信體系轉化,加速微信交易生態建設,並對微信平台的廣告價值(社交廣告、媒體廣告)和金融業務提供巨大潛在提升空間。

騰訊金融生態加速佈局,有望成為騰訊第二引擎。支付業務端,毛利率和支付費率長期有望逐步提升,我們測算支付業務樂觀預期下分別有望貢獻過千億元業績增量。在金融服務端,隨着微信的交易生態逐步成型,騰訊的交易數據有望更加全面,基於微眾銀行的消費金融和信貸服務上有望開拓更多的空間。

對標螞蟻金服,騰訊金融業務有望提升騰訊估值。騰訊金融業務在用户和交易體量佔優,在產品和數據積累上欠缺。截至2019Q3騰訊旗下財付通/螞蟻旗下支付寶分別達到10.0/7.8億用户規模,並分別切分46%/43%的交易金額份額;而螞蟻集團憑藉花唄/借唄等服務與阿里電商數據打通建立起產品和數據優勢。我們預計隨着微信交易生態體系的逐步完善,騰訊金融的發展潛力有望逐步被挖掘,從估值上看,騰訊金融業務應該與螞蟻金服處於同一水平。

風險提示:微信小商店進展不及預期;支付業務手續費率提價不及預期;騰訊金融業務佈局不及預期。

盈利預測及投資建議:隨着微信推出小商店功能,微信閉環交易生態得以迎風起航,依託微信及小程序龐大的用户體量和騰訊金融領域的加速佈局,未來微信在支付、電商、直播等領域影響力有望進一步擴大。公司各項業務有望繼續維持穩健表現,我們維持公司2020~2022年營收預測分別為4707/5694/6778億元,同比+25%/+21%/+19%。維持2020~2022年淨利潤(Non-GAAP)預測分別為1159/1415/1674億元,同比+24%/+21%/+19%,現價對應PE分別為40/33/28x,維持“買入”評級。

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