植耀輝: 科技股勢強續持有 淺談思摩爾(06969.HK)前景
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，市場繼續熱炒科技相關股，皆因恆指服務公司宣布，將於下周推出恆生科技指數，一時之間相關股份全數被炒高。當然，筆者認為新指數的成立有其必要性，科技股走勢或多或少亦是受到納指表現強勁所帶動，而本周當地亦有眾多科網巨企公布季績，預期納指走勢會較波動。不過阿里巴巴(09988.HK)似乎有不少炒作憧憬，當中包括螞蟻金服有意A+H上市以及憧憬恆指季檢等，故持貨之投資者可考慮繼續持有。
除此以外，半新股亦是市場其中一個焦點，特別是部分業務相對較特別是公司，思摩爾(06969.HK)便是其中一隻令筆者感興趣之新股。
根據招股書資料，思摩爾主業為提供「霧化科技解決方案」，簡單而言就是與電子煙相關之產品。根據公司介紹，集團屬行業龍頭，去年佔總市場份額16.5%。至於相關行業有何吸引之處，那便要從近年煙草行業發展說起。全球煙草製品市場規模過去數年仍能維持穩定增長，由2014年的7,157億美元以複合年增長率3.9%增加至2019年的8,654億美元，然而在全球日益嚴格的控煙政策影響下，傳統捲煙的銷售將無可避免受到影響，故雖然現時年仍佔煙草製品總銷售額88.2%，但未來增長將進一步受壓。相對之下，電子煙卻越來越受吸煙人士歡迎，由2014年至2019年之複合年增長率便達到24.2%，預期至2024年之複合增長率將達到24.9%，增速明顯較傳統捲煙快。所以思摩爾本身有一定賣點。事實上，該公司由2016年起盈利增速亦相當強勁，去年盈利便急增超過2倍。集團本周初亦公告，上半年於經調整純利將增加38%至42.9%。
雖然賣點不少，但筆者認為，相關行業最大不確定性來自政策風險。無疑近年電子霧化設備越來越受歡迎，亦因如此，預期未來會有更多相關法規出台；例如葡萄牙便於2018年宣布，禁止在封閉空間使用電子霧化設備；此外，由於電子煙最近十年面世，醫學界亦正研究長期使用會否對健康會否帶來影響。所以筆者雖亦看好其發展，但仍會繼續觀望行業狀況，故暫只建議待回落10%左右小注吸納。
至於另一煙草股中煙香港(06055.HK)，其主要業務為煙草貿易，集團已發上半年盈警，預期盈利下跌50%至60%，不過對其股價影響不大。嚴格上，中煙自上市至今最大賣點在於其母企背景─中國煙草總公司，因此亦一直憧憬母企注資概念，只是除此因素外，中煙業務吸引力一般，故還是待有消息始再作跟進吧！
(筆者為證監會持牌人，持有阿里巴巴股份)~
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