維達國際(03331.HK)2020H1點評：紙巾+個護雙輪驅動，盈利能力創新高，維持“強烈推薦”評級
機構：長城證券
評級：強烈推薦
Q2 收入端顯著回暖，H1 權益持有人應占溢利同比+107.5%。公司發佈2020H1 業績報告，實現營業收入 76.34 億港元，同比-3.3%（剔除匯率因素，同比+1%）；經營溢利 12.6 億港元，同比+100%；權利持有人應占溢利為 9.13 億港元，同比+107.5%。Q2 單季實現收入 42.15 億港元，同比+10.57%（剔除匯率因素，同比+15%）；經營溢利 7.3 億港元，同比+152.6%；權利持有人應占溢利為 5.35 億港元。
Q2 中國地區實現 20%增長，電商渠道表現靚麗。分地區來看，Q2 剔除匯率因素，中國地區實現 20%的增長，海外雖承受疫情壓力，也實現個位數增長。分渠道來看，Q2 GT、KA、EC、2B 渠道分別同比-8%、+13%、+48%、-18%。其中疫情催化下，電商渠道維持高速增長，2B 業務因終端餐飲、旅遊等持續低迷，仍錄得負增長。分產品來看，Q2 紙巾、個護分別同比+13.53%、-2.6%，紙巾業務增速明顯回暖，個護預計受海外疫情及匯兑影響小幅下滑。
紙巾、個護齊發力，毛利率、淨利率創下新高。H1 毛利率達 38.5%（同比+10.4pcpts）；Q2 毛利率達 39.4%（同比+9.74pcpts，環比+1.9pcpts）。
毛利率創新高主要原因如下：1）木漿價格同比大幅下降，紙巾高端產品佔比持續提升，Tempo、立體美、濕巾、多康等佔比達到 30%，紙巾業務毛利率同比+11.2pcpt 至 39.4%；2）Libresse 衞生巾規模化生產及順利推廣，帶動個護業務毛利率同比+6.8pcpts 至 34.5%。公司加強產品促銷力度，H1 銷售費用率同比+1pcpt 至 16.6%，管理費用率+1.1pcpts 至 5.7%。有效税率由 16%提升至 22.8%，但公司的高新技術企業認定在申請過程中，後續有效税率將有所回調。受益於毛利率顯著提升，公司 H1 淨利率達 12%（同比+8.49pcpts）。
投資建議：預計全年木漿價格持續低位，同時公司將採取適當的囤貨政策平滑木漿價格波動，疊加高端產品佔比持續提升，公司高盈利有望持續。預測 2020-2021 年 EPS 至 1.52、1.71 港元，對應 PE 為 20、18x，維持“強烈推薦”評級。
風險提示：原材料價格上漲風險；產能釋放不及預期；行業產能擴張大於需求，競爭加劇；擴品類推廣不及預期；營銷渠道建設不及預期。
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