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植耀辉: 贸易战再开打 投资市场震荡难免
阿思达克 05-06 10:42
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称,还记得一年前的5月初,笔者出席了一个近千人之投资讲座,当时中美双方已打算签订贸易协议,与会嘉宾对市场看法亦普遍正面,笔者虽然是「淡友底」,但当时亦不得不向现实低头。然而当晚特朗普便宣布将於5月10日向中国加徵关税,杀市场一个措手不及。谁料到一年之後,特朗普会「照办煮碗」,再次威胁向中国加徵关税?当然今次背景较上次更为复杂,姑勿论病毒从何而来,但欧美等地处理疫情确是相当不济,迄今仍未见受控。在历来未有一位总统可在经济衰退时连任的背景下,特朗普要「创造历史」,肯定会将矛头指向中国。可以预期,去年受消息而出现大上大落之波动市况将再度重现,加上疫情拖累,恐怕投资者只会「有得震,无得训」矣!

当然本周亦要留意美国就业数据,根据《彭博通讯社》预测,美国4月非农职位将破记录减少2,130万人,失业率亦会暴升至16%。虽然是短期现象,但未来要新增以千万计就业职位恐怕十分困难。所以未来数天要更加留意美股表现。

提到美股,则不可不提亚马逊(Amazon)。这家电商巨擘上周公布了一份好坏参半之季绩。一如市场预期,疫情令亚马逊电商业务、广告业务及云计算业务AWS需求急增,营业额增幅亦优於市场预期,上升26%至755亿美元创历史新高;不过,由於要为员工提供病毒检测、采购个人防护装备以及厂房清洁升级,另外为了应付庞大网购订单需求,需要增聘17.5万人兼上调时薪,令营业支出增幅达到29%,最终净利润反而倒退近三成!该公司更预期,由於上述因素,本季支出将进一步暴增40亿美元,最坏情况更有机会令第二季业绩「见红」。这跟大部分分析指疫情有利网购的观点有所出入。

笔者一向亦有网购习惯,过去半年订购次数亦明显增加(每月「找卡数」时便知订购次数有多令自己惊讶),但同时亦不断思考在疫情下物流运输会有多麻烦,回想年初订物资时不断被「CUT单」便已明白当前情况。所以笔者相信,亚马逊的境况肯定非个别例子,亦是很多大型网购企业面对之一大难题。

这或亦可解释到为何阿里巴巴(09988.HK)股价近期如此弱势。事实上两者业务均涉及物流仓储运输,阿里巴巴亦早已预告今年首季业绩表现将受疫情影响,同样经营成本将成为投资者最大关注点。当然,软银一日未正式减持,对其股价亦肯定带来心理影响。当然,以中长线而言阿里巴巴现价依然相当吸引,只是短期似乎下调压力仍存在下,不妨再耐心并分阶段买入会更理想。

(笔者为证监会持牌人,持有亚马逊及阿里巴巴股份)~

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