植耀辉: 港股维持上落市 金蝶(00268.HK)押注云业务有待观察
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，本地疫情酝酿爆发第三波，中美关系仍受到关注；同时投资者亦观望美股业绩表现，令恒指昨日有所回落。不过，在「资金市」下，暂仍难言大市炒作已完。而且隔晚(14日)美股又憧憬药厂研发疫苗有良好进展而有所反弹，故短期仍会维持上落市格局。
当然，近期个别板块仍见炒作，游戏相关股份便是其中之一。该板块上周被炒起有不少原因，但大分因素可能是与早前应用分析平台Sensor Tower统计资料显示，国内30家手游发行商上月全球收入超16.5亿美元有关；另外，踏入7月份传统暑假旺季，各大游戏商亦摩拳擦掌，推出更多重磅新作，而疫情见反弹亦令「宅经济」股份受到追捧。不过行业有另一消息亦值得分享，就是腾讯(00700.HK)有意收购或私有化乐游科技(01089.HK)。
腾讯近年在游戏市场动作多多不是新鲜事，反而焦点落入乐游身上。乐游主要业务为游戏开发及发行，而最大卖点就是自家开发及发行之网络游戏Warframe。根据公司资料，该游戏自2013年3月推出後一直为全球最受欢迎之免费游戏，截至去年底之注册用户人数达5,746.5万。由於拥有相当高「人气」，近年乐游多次成为被收购对象，在腾讯之前便有创梦天地(01119.HK)及於深交所上市之浙江世纪华通(002602.SZ)曾进行洽购。不过或者是「皇帝女唔忧嫁」，亦可能是出价未满意关系而一直未见成事。事实上，Sony亦对乐游虎视眈眈，腾讯过去收购出手亦较「松」，且看今次乐游会否找到「真爱」!至於乐游现价是否值得吸纳，则要视乎最终出价而定。所以暂时还是抱观望态度为佳。
除了游戏板块外，软件股亦受投资者热烈追捧，不少股份年初至今动辄倍升，金蝶(00268.HK)便是其中之一。不过，该公司上周宣布上半年业绩盈转亏，便令其股价连续两个交易日下跌。看其盈警相关通告，除了受疫情拖累，集团亦指是与「战略规划进行业务模式调整」有关。金蝶现时业务重心为ERP，亦即企业资源计划(Enterprise Resource Planning)。然而集团近年已表明会转型为一云服务供应商，目标是2020年云业务占集团总营收60%。
事实上，近年金蝶业绩表现并不算十分理想，去年上半年如撇除其他收入(包括增值税退还及租金收入等)，更已录得经营亏损。不过，作为集团未来关键业务，云业务增速始终较强劲，去年同比增长便达到54.7%，今年上半年增速稍为放慢，但亦有40%至50%增长。只是相关业务现时仍处於亏损状况，而且由於须继续加大研发及推广，相信金蝶未来一段时间仍会受此影响而令盈利状况变得不稳定。
尽管如此，其股价去向之关键可能仍是北水──周一(13/7)金蝶股价一度急跌近11.6%，收市跌幅不足3%，同日金蝶港股通(沪)成交额7.93亿元，占当日总成交52%以上，而净买入则达4.46亿元。始终在资金市下，估值是否合理可能又是另一回事了。
(笔者为证监会持牌人，并未持有相关股份)~
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