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植耀輝: 特朗普連任現暗湧 餐飲股留意大快活(00052.HK)
阿思達克 07-08 11:33
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,肺炎疫情仍在多地肆虐,本周更已突破1,100萬宗。美洲部分國家採取「佛系」抗疫,卻導致疫情一發不可收拾,現時美國及巴西每日仍出現高達數以萬計新症,美國多個州份又已暫停重啟計劃。面對如此嚴峻局勢,早前有傳美國總統特朗普亦已「意興闌珊」,並暗示未必能夠成功連任。特朗普上任之初靠減稅及貿易戰成功爭取民眾支持,然而在處理疫情問題以及內部事件上的連番失誤,令其支持度持續下跌。

美國民意調查機構蓋洛普公司的一項調查顯示,美國民眾6月份對總統特朗普經濟政策支持度,由年初之超過60%下滑至47%;另外,由《紐約時報》及Siena College所做之民調顯示,特朗普支持位較拜登大幅落後14個百分點,除非疫情能早日得到紓緩,否則以現時情況,特朗普連任的機會也「凍過水」了。當然,他仍有不少手段可用,例如繼續吹捧美國經濟表現,以及在中美關係上再出招。不過最實際的一招可能跟美股有關-年初至今美股三大指數除道指仍跌約9%外,標普跌幅已收窄至不足3%,納指更勁升超過15%。特朗普一直將股市表現與政績掛鉤,如美股繼續走強,且看能否助其扳回部分失地。

繼續早前話題,就是比較大家樂(00341.HK)及大快活(00052.HK)業績表現。兩者均已先後公布截至3月底止全年業績。其實另一餐飲股翠華(01314.HK)亦已公布業績,惟定位與前兩者不同,故只會集中比較前兩者。受疫情及社會運動影響,餐飲股盈利大幅倒退是預期之內,特別是下半年情況相當嚴峻,大家樂營運利潤便盈轉虧,大快活稍為好一點,不過盈利仍倒退超過95%。

至於營運方面,兩者毛利率皆無可避免大跌,大家樂下跌5.27個百分點至9.2%,如單計下半年毛利率更大跌9.24個百分點至6.3%;相比之下,大快活毛利率亦見收窄,但幅度則較大家樂輕微,下半年計毛利率下跌5.18個百分點至至6.99%。

另外,三大成本(食材、租金及人工)佔收入比重,大家樂有較詳細資料,大致上維持70%以上水平,不過下半年則升至78.13%,最大原因在於收入下跌,但人工成本依然偏高(佔收入比例高達35.33%)。大快活則未見有相關資料提供。不過,隨著租金未來有機會向下調整,議價空間亦增加;另外政府防疫抗疫基金「保就業」計劃亦有望減輕人工成本,盈利能力有望逐步改善。

最後是派息。大家樂基於維持穩定現金流而未有派發末期息,但全年計派息比率仍達到151.1%;大快活派息雖然有所減少,但仍然維持派發末期股息,而全年計派息比率為155%。

至於投資價值方面,疫情發展對餐飲股會有關鍵性影響,而復工復課以及政府資助對餐飲業無疑有正面幫助。筆者亦認為餐飲股復甦能力較其他零售板塊為佳,故現水平仍有一定值博率;當中大快活業務表現較理想,故仍值得吸納作中長線部署。

(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)~

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