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吉利汽車(00175.HK)跟蹤報告:進入“科技4.0時代“,維持“買入”評級
格隆匯 07-07 14:59

機構:西部證券

評級:買入

核心結論

吉利成為首個登錄科創板的整車企業,預計融資完成後收購沃爾沃現金充足。1)公司近期批准人民幣股份及科創板上市初步方案,成為首個登錄科創板的整車企業,一方面意味着吉利正往科技公司轉型,另一方面在A股增加融資渠道,相比H股市場可以享受更高估值溢價,減少對現有股東的股權稀釋;2)我們認為沃爾沃汽車的合理估值區間在384-626億元,科創板融資完成後,公司將有足夠現金完成對沃爾沃收購;3)沃爾沃注入到吉利上市公司主體後,可以消除內部關聯交易,提升經營效率,加速全球化進程。

Waymo加持下自動駕駛發展提速,沃爾沃、極星有望入局PMA平台。

Waymo宣佈成為沃爾沃、極星和領克L4級別自動駕駛技術全球獨家合作伙伴,對公司意義重大:1)此次合作的核心是WaymoDriver技術可以搭載到全新純電平台下的合作車型,Waymo將提供全套軟硬件自動駕駛方案,技術方面對車企將更加開放,進而大幅降低沃爾沃量產L4級別車型的研發成本;2)沃爾沃和極星後續入局PMA平台的概率加大,吉利和沃爾沃在自動駕駛技術和供應鏈方面的共享程度將進一步提升。

吉利新品定位精準,領克穩步向上突破,降本效應逐步顯現,維持“買入”評級。1)我們上調2020-2022年領克品牌銷量預測至19.8/34.5/38.6萬台,一是領克03/05銷售情況超出預期,二是預計Waymo將從PMA平台採購純電車型用於L4級別自動駕駛研發;2)吉利新產品豪越、Preface定位精準,有望成為爆款;3)吉利和沃爾沃研發效率提升,我們預期2021/2022年公司研發成本下降15%/20%。我們上調2020-2022年歸母淨利潤預估至90/134/138億元,對應EPS0.97/1.29/1.48元,反映了5月底增發對股本攤薄的影響。我們調高目標價至21.3港元,基於DCF模型,對應2021/2022年15/13倍市盈率。

風險提示:疫情發展進度超預期、新產品銷售不及預期、產品召回風險。

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