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《大行報告》中金升港交所(00388.HK)目標價至387元 受益交投活躍、中概股回歸及MSCI衍生品推出
阿思達克 07-06 12:06
中金發表報告表示﹐受益於本地交易額活躍、中概股回歸超預期、MSCI相關衍生品推出取得積極進展,港交所(00388.HK)股價表現強勢、該股年初以來漲幅達38%。該行認為,港交所當前估值仍處於歷史合理區間;往前看,若盈利增長超預期、境內外資本市場改革與開放政策持續落地、以及港股交投情緒向好帶動估值提振,均有望推動港交所股價進一步上行。

該行表示,上調對港交所目標價13%至387港元,對應2021預測市盈率年38倍及12%的上行空間;重申「跑贏行業」評級。在預期2020年及2021年港股日均成交額為1,200億港元、MSCI相關產品收入在2021年逐步兌現的基準假設下,該行預計港交所2020年及2021年盈利分別按年增長16%、19%至109億及129億港元。

中金指,港交所當前交易於2021年預測市盈率34倍,仍處歷史估值1倍標準差之內;考慮到目前收入結構較歷史更多元化、EBTDA有望亦超越歷史水平,該行認為當前估值仍屬合理水平。

結合近期監管表態,中金預計MSCI的A股期貨或有望近期落地,通過以下兩種方式測算MSCI的A股期貨推出後,在一個完整運行年度對於當年收入的貢獻,第一情境是以港交所現有期貨品種中最活躍的恆生指數期貨為參考,若MSCI的A股期貨推出後交易量能達到恆生指數期貨的100%至200%、收費水平與其相當,則有望貢獻2021年收入的3.3%至6.6%。第二情境是以同為境外A股衍生品的新加坡富時A50期貨為參考,若MSCI的A股期貨推出後交易量能達到富時A50的150%至200%、考慮新產品推出收費水平在富時A50基礎上「打八折」,則有望增厚2021年收入5.3%至7.1%。

亞洲及新興市場指數的MSCI股票指數期貨及期權產品。以新加坡交易所相關衍生品交易收入貢獻為參考,2019年新交所衍生品業務收入佔比達51%,然而除MSCI新加坡的期貨和期權外,新交所所有其他MSCI產品牌照協議均將於2021年2月到期。相關產品佔新交所衍生品交易量約10%,對應新交所2019年收入佔比約5%、利潤佔比約10%;第二是以2019年財務數據為參考,若假設新交所減少的MSCI產品收入全部轉移至港交所,則該行預計有望增厚港交所2019年營業收入的1.6%、淨利潤的2.3%。(wl/a)

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