吉利汽車(00175.HK):擬科創板上市,一體化下自動駕駛提速,維持“優於大市”評級
機構:海通證券
評級:優於大市
投資要點:
公司籌融資進度加速,未雨綢繆應對汽車行業轉型升級大趨勢。繼宣佈配股計劃後,公司對外公告擬登陸上海科創板上市的初步方案,我們認為公司後續有望形成 A+H 雙平台佈局,融資能力有望進一步提升,為吉利科技 4.0 全面架構造車時代和應對汽車行業電動化、智能化轉型升級儲備充足資金彈藥。
科創板上市初步方案。6 月24 日,公司公告發行人民幣股份及於上海科創板上市初步方案,公司擬發行不超過 17.32 億股(不超過公司擴大後總股本的15%) 。所得款項將用於新車型產品研發(約佔 40%) ,新能源、車聯網、智能駕駛等前瞻性科技研發項目(約佔 15%) ,潛在工廠或產業鏈上下游相關創新企業等境內標的收購(約佔 15%) ,補充營運資金(約佔 30%) 。
配股計劃。5 月 29 日,公司公佈配股計劃,擬以每股港幣 10.8 元配售股份 6億股(扣除相關費用及開支後預計募資約 64.5 億港幣) ,所得款項淨額將用於公司業務發展及一般營運資金。
吉利+沃爾沃“一體化”協同效應值得期待,自動駕駛佈局提速。沃爾沃自2012 年起便開始在自動駕駛領域的佈局,我們認為,在吉利與沃爾沃尋求一體化整合的大背景下,雙方在自動駕駛方面的協同效應將進一步提升。
沃爾沃牽手 Waymo。Waymo 成為沃爾沃汽車集團及其戰略投資品牌極星和領克 L4 級別自動駕駛技術全球獨家合作伙伴。 此次戰略合作的首要目標是將Waymo Driver 技術搭載到一個出行專屬的全新純電車平台上,從而創造包括網約車服務在內的應用場景和商業模式。
沃爾沃聯合滴滴出行開展的自動駕駛出租車在上海試運行。6 月 27 日,上海智能網聯汽車規模化載人示範應用啟動,滴滴出行首次面向公眾開放自動駕駛服務。根據車雲網百家號,此次滴滴出行提供的自動駕駛網約車服務所使用的車輛為沃爾沃 XC60,在車頂裝載了一個高線束和兩個低線束激光雷達,以及 7 個攝像頭,全車共有 20 餘個傳感器。
盈利預測與投資建議。預計公司 2020-2022 年歸母淨利潤分別為104.94/128.40/152.26 億元人民幣,EPS 分別為 1.07/1.31/1.55 元人民幣。參考可比公司估值水平以及考慮到公司的成長性,給予其 2020 年 13-15 倍PE,對應合理價值區間 13.91-16.05 元人民幣/15.29-17.64 元港幣(匯率港幣比人民幣按 1:0.91 計算),維持“優於大市”評級。
風險提示。公司新車型銷量不及預期;整體市場競爭激烈程度超預期。
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