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《大行报告》摩通:若内银获券商牌照 将影响券商经纪及保证金融资业务
阿思达克 07-02 12:06
据《财新》报道,监管部门计划向商业银行发放券商牌照,或从几大商业银行中选取至少两家试点设立券商。摩根大通发表研究报告指,若银行确实得到券商牌照,不会成为银行利润增长的主要动力。对於券商而言,经纪和保证金融资业务可能受影响。该行估计,专注於零售经纪业务的券商如中国银河(06881.HK)会受较大负面影响。

摩通指,内地券商於上半年表现符合恒指和国企指数,而近年H股折让扩大主要来自股本回报率降低,和盈利波动性,但发展衍生工具结构性趋势、财富/资产管理的转型、资本市场改革等都令估值提升,相信具领导地位的券商可以继续受惠监管政策利好的定位,包括中金(03908.HK)、中信证券(06030.HK)、华泰(06886.HK)。

该行升券商行业2020至21年盈利预期,分别为9%及8%,以反映更好的日均成交量,包销活动等,维持对中信证券和中金首选地位,但需留意内银进入行业竞争的风险。

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