恆安國際(01044.HK)：大股東持續增持，衞生巾Q2或超預期，維持“買入”評級
機構：中信證券
評級：買入
核心觀點
Q2 公司衞生巾收入增速或超預期；濕紙巾需求景氣，紙尿褲持續改善，低價原材料及費用優化料將帶來利潤彈性，2020 年業績有望提速。大股東連續增持 35 億港元有望提振市場信心，維持“買入”評級。
受高端產品銷售拉動，2020Q2 衞生巾收入增速有望達中單位數。自 2019 年上半年開始實施銷售渠道改革，公司衞生巾業務收入恢復增長，2020 年 Q1 受疫情影響較為有限，Q2 渠道補庫、產品組合發力高端化，其中高端品牌 Space7繼續保持雙位數增長，預計高端產品銷售佔比可達到高單位數。受此拉動，我們預期 2020Q2 衞生巾收入增速可達中單位數，H1 可達低單位數。由於衞生巾毛利率/淨利率可達約 70%/35%，其對利潤增速的拉動作用較為明顯。
濕紙巾增速靚麗、漿價低位運行，紙巾盈利環比仍將提升。2020H1 公司紙巾業務也受益於產品高端化，其中濕紙巾品類毛利率超 50%，有望實現雙位數增長，佔紙巾收入比重料將提升至 10%以上，加上品諾、廚房紙貢獻，預計公司高端品佔比可達 15%左右；幹紙巾銷售 Q2 逐步修復，下半年有望加強終端促銷彌補疫情影響，預計 2020H1/A 紙巾業務收入同比+5%/+9%。上半年木漿價格持續低位運行，雖然費用率有所提升，料淨利率仍環比提升，下半年預計木漿價格仍將低位震盪。
紙尿褲持續改善，公司費用率有優化空間。2020H1 成人紙尿褲銷售延續雙位數增長，嬰兒紙尿褲發力產品高端化和電商渠道，預計紙尿褲 2020H1 同比增速繼續收窄至-3%，全年同比有望持平。 公司上半年受疫情影響費用投入有所收縮，料下半年將增加費用投入驅動終端動銷，但全年費用率仍有望同比回落1-2pcts，主要來自廣告費用率的下降。
大股東連續增持 35億港元，有望提振市場信心。2020 年截至 6月 28 日，大股東 Credit Suisse Trust Limited（家族信託）、安平控股/投資、行政總裁許連捷連續 13 次增持，共計增持 6,285 萬股，增持金額 34.7 億港元。其中許連捷持股比例由 20.61%上升至 21.95%，增持金額共計 8.8 億港元，體現出大股東及管理層對公司中長期發展前景的樂觀預期。
風險因素：原材料價格波動；新品銷售、渠道拓展以及產能投放不及預期。
投資建議：新冠疫情對公司整體影響偏正面，公司各項業務經營均存亮點，2020年業績提速可期。維持 2020-22 年 EPS預測 3.64/3.95/4.20 元/股，現價對應公司 2020PE 約 17 倍，基本面向上有望帶動估值修復，維持“買入”評級。
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