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《展望》券商料恆指仍波動 憧憬新經濟公司權重趨升 最樂觀望三萬關
阿思達克 06-30 17:22
今年上半年受新冠疫情肆虐全球、及中美關係趨緊張所衝擊,港股反覆下跌3,762點或13.3%,展望2020年下半年,投資者擔心新冠疫情或爆發第二波,潛在影響全球各地經濟重啟,加上11月美國總統大選成市場一大焦點,預期大市將繼續波動。但券商亦指隨著恆指服務公司已允許恆指可納入同股不同權股份,料恆指未來將有更多新經濟股份「染藍」,提高相關股份權重,因股盈增長預測一般較傳統股份為高,料可提升市場對恆指估值水平預測。

因疫情令全球經濟一度停擺,在各國不斷「量寬」救市之下,資金其後流入股市及追逐新經濟股份,但中美關係未來仍存變數,包括首階段協議的落實進程等。本網綜合10間券商預測,料恆指今年下半年目標介乎23,300點至30,000點水平,即潛在變幅為跌4.6%至升22.8%。同時綜合5間券商預測,估計國指下半年目標介乎9,670點至12,000點,即潛在變幅為跌0.9%至升23%。

【料後市波動 樂觀望三萬】

綜合多間大行對恆指展望,以傑富瑞最為樂觀,予恆指目標30,000點,該行本月初報告料在投資者拋售貨幣基金及美元時,新經濟股上市熱潮正在推動恆生指數表現,預期恆指未來六個月或上試30,000點,稱適逢中概股回流作第二上市,刺激資金流入,傑富瑞估計二次上市企業及具有同股不同權架構的創新型企業將改變恆指的結構,該行估計,有31隻已在美國上市的中概股有條件可在2020至2021年內在港作第二上市,並將香港的評級向上調整至「看好」。

光大新鴻基預測下半年恆指波動區間介乎25,000點至30,000點;國指波動區間在9,700至12,000點,風險因素方面,該行預期今年下半年美國將維持貨幣匯率穩定,中國則相對偏向寬鬆。而中美貿易摩擦陰霾仍持續困擾環球經濟增長。

【恆指迎改革 新經濟趨升】

宏匯資產管理董事及投資策略總監林嘉麒接受本網訪問時表示,料恆指下半年繼續受疫情及政治因素影響,一旦新冠疫情受控及年底疫苗有機會推出,相信消息可對重啟經濟影響正面,從而令中長線經濟數據改善,加上全球央行加碼放水,以解決企業資金問題下,投資者對市場信心增強。他料恆指短期24,000點有支持,上望25,000點,並期望7月「七翻身」恆指可上望250天線(即26,000點附近),並預期21,139應為今年低位,年內跌穿機會不大。

林嘉麒估計,11月美國總統大選前,料大市將反覆造好,恆指可上望28,000點,一旦新冠疫情受控及年底疫苗有機會推出,相信消息可對重啟經濟影響正面,並料特朗普大選前言論會繼續打「中國牌」,但美大選後若總統人選有變動,不排除投資者會先行獲利,令大市回吐。

富昌證券聯席董事譚朗蔚預期,恆指下半年主要受第二波疫情及中美貿易摩擦影響。第二波疫情下經濟重啟能否如特朗普所指「V形」反彈仍有待商榷,實際上經濟重啟的利好因素,應該在上半年股市中反映,目前憧憬更多經濟新措施及方案,以刺激大市續升。他指一旦第二波疫情使企業業績受累,失業問題嚴重,因此下半年不宜過份樂觀,料恆指短期於23,500-24,700點上落。若上破24,800點有望見26,000,若穿22,700或有機會跌至21,700或再試3月低位21,139。

【內地先復甦 憂疫情次波】

摩根士丹利本月中發表港股年中展望報告,相信中國經濟在疫情下為亞太區(撇除日本)最快復甦地區,並領先全球,雖然中美衝突仍是最大風險因素,該行喜愛A股因在地緣政治不明朗下有較佳的防守性及估值吸引,同時看好部份中概股,並上調對內地消費股的持倉佔比。該行亦指恆生指數服務公司已宣布改變未來成份股規則,料未來會有更多新經濟股份可獲納入,估計包括阿里巴巴(09988.HK)、美團點評(03690.HK)、小米(01810.HK)可於9月晉身成藍籌股及國指成份股。

大摩指在基本情境預測下,對恆指至明年6月目標預測為23,300點,相當於至明年6月止預測市盈率10.9倍;該行對國指目標預測為9,670點,相當於至明年6月止預測市盈率9.8倍。(ta/w/t)

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